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Politics

The Coming Landslide and the Inevitable Fallout

Nov. 5, 2012 12:28am
Don Rasmussen is a writer and a political consultant providing campaign technology and strategic analysis to Constitutional Republican candidates. He earned  […]
Don Rasmussen is a writer and a political consultant providing campaign technology and strategic analysis to Constitutional Republican candidates. He earned his BA in Political Economy and Latin America Studies from the University of Washington before moving on to a Masters in Political Management from George Washington University. He has staffed or advised on two presidential campaigns and over a dozen congressional races as well as organizing The Rally for the Republic, the conservative counter-convention to the 2008 Republican National Convention, which helped launch the TEA Party movement. Today he lives in Austin where he is working on his first book, Diaspora: Why We Leave, a study of the economic and political motivations of Americans living abroad.
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dar2214@gmail.com

This election will not be close. That was my prediction last May when the shape of the presidential campaign became clear and it is my prediction now. While the media and pundits continue to muddy the water with claims and counter-claims feeding a conventional wisdom that this race will be a nail-biter, the reality is that historical facts and strategic blunders long ago doomed Barrack Obama to a single term.

The macro-economic climate in the U.S. has remained poor throughout this election season. Despite efforts by the MSM to prop up Obama with cherry-picked statistics, the balance of economic data reveals an economy that has limped along, failed to create jobs, and has discouraged wealth creation and risk taking.  Doggedly high unemployment, a widening budget deficit, uncertainty and the objective failure of Keynesian stimulus have been evident to every American for three years. Moreover, these conditions have affected most Americans personally. This alone makes re-election nearly impossible as attested to by historic examples.

For all of the ideological fervor from the noisiest corners of candidate fandom, rational people vote their self-interest and most American are rational. James Carville’s admonition in 1992 that “it’s the economy, stupid” remains resoundingly true today. The fact that Team Obama has been forced to make the election about so many small, peripheral issues is a testament to the fact that they know they can’t win the election on the one issue that matters above all others. What they have failed to accept is that no amount of “divide and conquer” constituency politics will separate the vast majority from their rational self-interest. Most women will never be in the market for abortions, but they will be in the market for a job.

The great strategic blunder of the Obama campaign will be studied for decades to come, the decision to spend early in an effort to make Mitt Romney unacceptable.  While a common and time tested electoral strategy, the Obama team forgot one important thing about campaign messages; they must be at least reasonably consistent with reality. You simply cannot tell the electorate that day is night and hope to be credible over time.

One way or another the fact that Mitt Romney is a basically decent and reasonable man was going to bubble up as more people focused on the election.  The straw man carefully crafted by team Obama over the summer simply didn’t pass the smell test when exposed to the light of day.  The decision by Romney’s campaign to hold back spending until the fall was an acknowledgement that they understood this. The millions that tuned into the debates confirmed it. Check and mate.

But the most entertaining fall-out will be the recriminations of pollsters and polling generally in the wake of Romney’s 330+ electoral vote win next Tuesday. It has been set in stone early on that the bulk of polling data for this cycle would incorporate some element of the 2008 turn-out model. Averaging past performance is a common tool in polling and, indeed, in all statistical modeling. But what happens if unique and unrepeatable factors create an outlier result? In 2008 President Obama brought out new voters and Democrats in historic numbers. He won independents and even cut into the Republican base because of three unique features of his candidacy: his race, the widespread disapproval of George W. Bush, and the desire to try something different in light of unprecedented economic turmoil.

Pollsters in 2012 continue to weigh these unrepeatable Obama benefits into an election cycle with fundamentally different structural features. In fact, most polls show Republicans enjoy a double digit enthusiasm lead going in to Tuesday. Yet polling models continue to show narrow wins for the president in key battleground and an overall electoral advantage.  My own analysis suggests that Democrats are being overrepresented by an average of just under 3 points, enough to swing CO, IA, NH, NV, OH, WI and Maine’s 2nd CD while locking down VA, FL, NC and Nebraska’s 2nd CD.  It also puts him within spitting distance in PA, MI, MN, and OR.

That would give Romney a historic rout with 355 electoral votes. Compare that to the Real Clear Politics average showing him currently leading in states worth just 235 electoral votes. This disparity will become the stuff of teeth-gnashing, consternation and soul-searching among pollsters and the media that relies on them when the ballots are counted. Hopefully it will lead to better methodology and less reliance on polls to drive news cycles in the future, but in the short run it will just be fun to watch Nate Silver trying to explain how he could have gotten it so very, very wrong.

Comments (16)

  • AnthonyCabrera
    Posted on November 17, 2012 at 5:31pm

    Honestly, when I was sent this earlier this week, I thought it was from The Onion. Then I realized you were serious. Which, of course, made it that much more hysterically funny.

    Report this comment

    AnthonyCabrera  
  • bhops
    Posted on November 6, 2012 at 10:21pm

    This race is not shaping up to be anywhere near this. How can Morris and this guy be so far off? I mean seriously, wtf were they thinking?

    I do pray I come back later to eat my words because Romney did win, but it certainly is not going to be a landslide! And it’s certainly not looking good for him right now.

    Report this comment

    bhops  
  • Joel Knows
    Posted on November 6, 2012 at 10:35am

    Unless all of us who are fed up with the current administration vote it won’t be a landslide. We have to drag out every person we can to vote or he will be wrong! Vote and help your friends to vote, and remind all conservatives to vote that you know.

    Report this comment

    Joel Knows  
    • marssnw
      Posted on November 6, 2012 at 3:47pm

      Amen Joel, Everyone get out and vote. If you are reading this and have not vote. Step one- Walk away from the computer Step 2 Get into your car Step 3 Head to the Polls Step 4 Vote Romney and Ryan 2012. RIGHT NOW!!!

      Report this comment

      marssnw  
  • KathleenD
    Posted on November 6, 2012 at 2:53am

    These pollsters might as well throw out their statistical models and use tarot cards from now on, As for the stooges at the old MSM networks, they need to fire everyone and start over. Then again, after the spectacular and dangerous bias on display in 2012, few will ever take the pollsters or the media seriously again. I agree with Pat Caddell: the media’s collaborative role with with a single political party/ideology threatens democracy.

    Report this comment

    KathleenD  
    • kathleenlee
      Posted on November 6, 2012 at 9:59am

      Absolutely correct… It’s going to be a landslide for romney. The people are awake, and the media is lying. Later the media will work in concert with the dems to try to suppress the vote, by saying exit polls show obama in wide lead…That, and they, are liars…Remember this and tell your friends in the mid west and west…That they are lying…And pray and pray and pray…And vote vote vote…Amen

      Report this comment

      kathleenlee  
    • MassachusettsModerate
      Posted on November 13, 2012 at 11:13pm

      Well, how do you feel now? I think you owe and the author of this article owe many of the Pollsters including Nate Silver an apology. Of course, now people are convincing themselves it was corruption. Face it, the extreme Right is killing our party and we better be honest with ourselves if we are ever to move forward in the future as a real Grand Old Party!

      Report this comment

      MassachusettsModerate  
  • Mudslinger
    Posted on November 5, 2012 at 10:39pm

    Please God let this be right!!!!

    Report this comment

    Mudslinger  
  • bedspirit
    Posted on November 5, 2012 at 9:48pm

    For him to win by that margin would be unprecedented. This guy makes Dick Morris seem down to earth. Romney might win, but he won’t get anywhere near 355.

    Report this comment

    bedspirit  
  • DennisMetz
    Posted on November 5, 2012 at 8:41pm

    the biggest problem with the united states is the ones voting most taxpaying working people try to have a decent sized family but they are being out breed by the welfare queens and welfare families

    Report this comment

    DennisMetz  
  • jaws810
    Posted on November 5, 2012 at 4:55pm

    I’ll be watching FNC election coverage but I’m recording CNBC so I can watch Chris Matthews’ head explode every time Romney wins a tossup or blue state. LOL

    Report this comment

    jaws810  
  • tonypro
    Posted on November 5, 2012 at 3:45pm

    With the levels of indoctrination of the current college generation, and the ones in school behind them K-12, I fear for the long term future of our country. The brainwashing of our children is at astounding levels.

    But alas, it’s all in Gods hands, and his will, will be done.

    Report this comment

     
  • jschold
    Posted on November 5, 2012 at 3:16pm

    I really believe that Mitt Romney was born and then prepared himself for this moment in time. God bless him, his family and the United States of America.

    Report this comment

    jschold  
  • CANDYGRAM
    Posted on November 5, 2012 at 7:08am

    I pray that you are right. But I am not letting down until it is confirmed. I am so stressed out about this it is affecting my life. Glad it will be over in a couple days. I fear for the my GOD, my country, my children, and myself. I don’t think Romney is conservative enough to fix all that needs fixin’ but it took us a long time to get here and it is going to take awhile to get back to sanity. He is a step in that direction.

    Report this comment

    CANDYGRAM  

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