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Politics

Why Obama Will Lose in a Landslide

May. 31, 2012 5:22pm

Wayne Allyn Root is a Capitalist Evangelist, entrepreneur, and Libertarian-conservative Republican. He is a former Libertarian vice presidential nominee. […]

Wayne Allyn Root is a Capitalist Evangelist, entrepreneur, and Libertarian-conservative Republican. He is a former Libertarian vice presidential nominee. Wayne's latest book is out on April 15, 2013: "The Ultimate Obama Survival Guide: Secrets to Protecting Your Family, Your Finances, and Your Freedom."

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wayne@rootforamerica.com

Author's Website

Most political predictions are made by biased pollsters, pundits, or prognosticators who are either rooting for Republicans or Democrats. I am neither. I am a former Libertarian Vice Presidential nominee, and a well-known Vegas oddsmaker with one of the most accurate records of predicting political races.

Neither Obama nor Romney are my horses in the race. I believe both Republicans and Democrats have destroyed the U.S. economy and brought us to the edge of economic disaster. My vote will go to Libertarian Presidential candidate Gary Johnson in November, whom I believe has the most fiscally conservative track record of any Governor in modern U.S. political history. Without the bold spending cuts of a Gary Johnson or Ron Paul, I don’t believe it’s possible to turnaround America.

But as an oddsmaker with a pretty remarkable track record of picking political races, I play no favorites. I simply use common sense to call them as I see them. Back in late December I released my New Years Predictions. I predicted back then- before a single GOP primary had been held, with Romney trailing for months to almost every GOP competitor from Rick Perry to Herman Cain to Newt- that Romney would easily rout his competition to win the GOP nomination by a landslide. I also predicted that the presidential race between Obama and Romney would be very close until election day. But on election day, Romney will win by a landslide similar to Reagan-Carter in 1980.

Understanding history, today I am even more convinced of a resounding Romney victory. Thirty-two years ago at this moment in time, Reagan was losing by 9 points to Carter. Romney is right now running even in polls. So why do most pollsters give Obama the edge?

First, most pollsters are missing one ingredient- common sense. Here is my gut instinct: not one American who voted for McCain four years ago will switch to Obama. Not one in all the land. But many millions of people who voted for an unknown Obama four years ago are angry, disillusioned, turned off, or scared about the future. Voters know Obama now- and that is a bad harbinger.

Now to an analysis of the voting blocks that matter in U.S. politics:

*Black voters. Obama has nowhere to go but down among this group. His endorsement of gay marriage has alienated many black church-going Christians. He may get 88% of their vote instead of the 96% he got in 2008. This is not good news for Obama.

*Hispanic voters. Obama has nowhere to go but down among this group. If Romney picks Rubio as his VP running-mate the GOP may pick up an extra 10% to 15% of Hispanic voters (plus lock down Florida). This is not good news for Obama.

*Jewish voters. Obama has been weak in his support of Israel. Many Jewish voters and big donors are angry and disappointed. I predict Obama’s Jewish support drops from 78% in 2008 to the low 60’s. This is not good news for Obama.

*Youth voters. Obama’s biggest and most enthusiastic believers from 4 years ago have graduated into a job market from hell. Young people are disillusioned, frightened, and broke- a bad combination. The enthusiasm is long gone. Turnout will be much lower among young voters, as will actual voting percentages. This not good news for Obama.

*Catholic voters. Obama won a majority of Catholics in 2008. That won’t happen again. Out of desperation to please women, Obama went to war with the Catholic Church over contraception. Now he is being sued by the Catholic Church. Majority lost. This is not good news for Obama.

*Small Business owners. Because I ran for Vice President last time around, and I’m a small businessman myself, I know literally thousands of small business owners. At least 40 percent of them in my circle of friends, fans and supporters voted for Obama 4 years ago to “give someone different a chance.” I warned them that he would pursue a war on capitalism and demonize anyone who owned a business…that he’d support unions over the private sector in a big way…that he’d overwhelm the economy with spending and debt. My friends didn’t listen. Four years later, I can’t find one person in my circle of small business owner friends voting for Obama. Not one. This is not good news for Obama.

*Blue collar working class whites. Do I need to say a thing? White working class voters are about as happy with Obama as Boston Red Sox fans feel about the New York Yankees. This is not good news for Obama.

*Suburban moms. The issue isn’t contraception…it’s having a job to pay for contraception. Obama’s economy frightens these moms. They are worried about putting food on the table. They fear for their children’s future. This is not good news for Obama.

*Military Veterans. McCain won this group by 10 points. Romney is winning by 24 points. The more our military vets got to see of Obama, the more they disliked him. This is not good news for Obama.

Add it up. Is there one major group where Obama has gained since 2008? Will anyone in America wake up on election day saying “I didn’t vote for Obama four years ago. But he’s done such a fantastic job, I can’t wait to vote for him today.” Does anyone feel that a vote for Obama makes their job more secure?

Forget the polls. My gut instincts as a Vegas oddsmaker and common sense small businessman tell me this will be a historic landslide and a world-class repudiation of Obama’s radical and risky socialist agenda. It’s Reagan-Carter all over again.

But I’ll give Obama credit for one thing- he is living proof that familiarity breeds contempt.

Wayne Allyn Root is a Capitalist Evangelist and serial entrepreneur. He is a former Libertarian vice presidential nominee. He now serves as Chairman of the Libertarian National Campaign Committee. He is the best-selling author of “The Conscience of a Libertarian: Empowering the Citizen Revolution with God, Guns, Gold & Tax Cuts.” His web site: www.ROOTforAmerica.com A version of this column originally appeared on TownHall.com.

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Comments (62)

The_Cabrito_Goat
Posted on June 2, 2012 at 5:47pm
You would think this would put me at ease, but I’m still worried about any unforeseen events that may happen. Summer is a slow news time, so many covert affairs may occur. Not to mention an economic collapse was triggered by the dems who run housing and urban development, which ushered in Obama. Who’s to say they can’t make this happen again? We must be on our toes, ready at all times for whatever they may try to pull

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- tifosa
  Posted on November 7, 2012 at 9:38am
  What a load. Hindsights
  
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maggieBP
Posted on June 2, 2012 at 5:26pm
An Obama win is too frightening to comprehend but make no mistake about it I think it is possible. One Chicago thug doesn’t scare me but the big HE will haul out the whole fandamily. Did y’all catch the trash talking Union Thugs in Wisconsin earlier this year? They multiply in the dark. They will be mobilized in vigilante justice form and we better look out. Anyone who can alienate as many groups as Obummer has is capable of refusing to quell the ‘riots’ when he loses and as result will declare martial law. Just watch what is going on abroad and realize we are closer than you think. His final straw was to take on the Catholics. Lets be prepared. WE CAN OVERCOME. VOTE Romney.

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Einyine
Posted on June 2, 2012 at 4:53pm
Wayne Allyn Root writes: “My vote will go to Libertarian Presidential candidate Gary Johnson in November, whom I believe has the most fiscally conservative track record of any Governor in modern U.S. political history.” Then, farther into the article, he writes: “Here is my gut instinct: not one American who voted for McCain four years ago will switch to Obama. Not one in all the land. But many millions of people who voted for an unknown Obama four years ago are angry, disillusioned, turned off, or scared about the future. Voters know Obama now- and that is a bad harbinger.”

I not only agree with Mr Root, but . . . . .
This conversation keeps running in my mind:
Libertarian: Does Romney need the Libertarian vote to beat Obama?
Republican: Yes.
Libertarian: So, the GOP vote plus the Libertarian vote can defeat Obama?
Republican: Yes. In fact, a vote for Gary Johnson will give Obama a second term because every vote for Johnson will take a vote away from Romney.
Libertarian: Who would you rather have in the White House: Obama or Johnson?
Republican: Anyone but Obama.
Libertarian: Then why don’t we all vote for Gary Johnson?

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- maggieBP
  Posted on June 2, 2012 at 5:11pm
  Too scary to comprehend.
  
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- bustedupvet
  Posted on June 3, 2012 at 3:01am
  ANY VOTE for anyone but Romney is a vote for Obama. We damn well better unite and support Romney or we will be in hell with Obama for another 4 and that will be the end of this country.
  
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Recursive1
Posted on June 2, 2012 at 4:09pm
Yes, Obama would lose an HONEST election by a landslide. But makes you, Mr. Root, think we have an honest election system? The GOP has been exposed committing election fraud against Ron Paul in the primaries. The Democrats have lots of dead or otherwise illegal voters on their rolls. The elite will probably kill Ron Paul rather than let him embarrass Obama in national debates. And there is not a dime’s worth of difference between Obama and Romney! We are so screwed.

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Recursive1
Posted on June 2, 2012 at 4:04pm
Mr. Root! Obama should lose, I know of no one not seriously unhappy with him. But your assumption that Obama will lose by a landslide is only valid when predicated upon the exercise of an honest election. What makes you think the Democrats will let us have an honest election? For that matter, the GOP has been exposed committing election fraud against Ron Paul in the primaries. Our whole election system is one big fraud decorated with smoke and mirrors. And there is not a dime’s worth of difference between Romney and Obama! Ron Paul is the best option, but he will be killed if he wins. We’re screwed!

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82ndairproud
Posted on June 2, 2012 at 3:22pm
If we don’t show up and support Romney we have not got a chance to win. Romney would not have been my first choice but he is who we got, he would be unarguably better than Obama, if he wins we need to hold his feet to the fire. If we split the vote with a third party Obama will win and America will lose. We could not afford the first four years, we will not survive as the America we know and love another four years

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kabenninger
Posted on June 2, 2012 at 3:08pm
Dear LOWINCOME I completely understand what you’re saying – I love the freedom of our country as well. However, there’s a very big difference in rooting for the underdog in a game and voting for a third party – knowing that your vote is desperately needed to vote out a dictator. A vote for Gary Johnson or Ron Paul, or whoever, would be a vote for obama.
And I’ll tell you – any person who runs on a third ticket this election will have my undying disdain because there’s no chance in he** he’d win and there’s every possibility that the election will go towards obama because of conservative votes being channeled away from Romney.
And I feel the same about any conservative who doesn’t vote because he doesn’t like Romney. My best friend is telling me he won’t vote for Romney – but of course won’t vote for obama – but to not vote against obama is, to me, the same as voting FOR him.
And then, yes, the 100% probability that there will be voter fraud taking place. Just how much? Who knows. But we’re going to need every single vote we can get to offset the fraud.

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- 75andkickin
  Posted on June 2, 2012 at 7:59pm
  You are so very right. Those who vote for Paul or Johnson will weaken Romneys chances. The on-the-fence voters had best remember Ross Perot. He, too, split the vote that gave us a corrupt Democrat administration. If a voter doesn’t want Socialism, internment camps and complete takeover of our way of life, vote for the strongest anti-Obama candidate, Romney.
  
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AmericanPatriot
Posted on June 2, 2012 at 2:38pm
From his writings, to God’s ears and voter’s ballots!

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FisCon
Posted on June 2, 2012 at 2:34pm
I agree 100%. He is going to lose in a landslide. Out of the 5 members of my immediate family that vote–last time 4 voted for Obama and one for Bush. This time, 4 of us will be voting for Romney (one member is deceased). That is a swing of 7 votes. Ask around–you will probably find the same kind of pattern in your own household. I think all of a sudden–people are going to start coming out of the closet and be more willing to admit their preference to pollsters who call on the phone.

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Truthnotpolitics
Posted on June 2, 2012 at 11:03am
http://www.american-trojan-horse.blogspot.com/
Want some reasons why?

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BelindaB
Posted on June 2, 2012 at 9:24am
President Romney, with Allen West !!!!

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BelindaB
Posted on June 2, 2012 at 9:20am
barry boy soetoro (ALIAS,barrack obama) will fall in November!!! The American People are FIRING his a@@ !!!

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BelindaB
Posted on June 2, 2012 at 9:13am
http://www.usnews.com/news/blogs/washington-whispers/2012/06/01/president-obama-has-outspent-last-five-presidents

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Shakespear
Posted on June 1, 2012 at 5:05pm
Never underestimate a Chicago Thug!!!

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Shakespear
Posted on June 1, 2012 at 5:03pm
Never, never, never underestimate a slimy, slick, black, snake of a Chicago Thug!

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pakaeboiboi
Posted on June 1, 2012 at 1:46pm
OMG OMG OMG ….. CHARLES116 ….. did you just say that BARAK OBAMA was HITLER??

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csense
Posted on June 1, 2012 at 12:54pm
Exactly!!!!!!!

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csense
Posted on June 1, 2012 at 12:53pm
Obama is a total disaster! As con-man in chief he has bamboozled a large segment of the population. He has in three years ruined the country domestically and internationally. He can not be trusted! I only needed to know one thing to understand this man. His claim that he sat in a pew for 20 years and NEVER heard his pastor, Mr. Wright, say anything bad about this country, white folks and the Jews told me all I needed to know. It became abundantly clear I was correct!

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- BelindaB
  Posted on June 2, 2012 at 9:22am
  CSENSE…AGREED!! He has LIED his way through his whole illegal time in office, and EVERY SINGLE AMERICAN, should be OUTRAGED!
  
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Twinspeedr
Posted on June 1, 2012 at 11:34am
Wayne, you missed the one all-important caveat: “IF fair and honest elections are held”! :-O

I can virtually guarantee that Obama’s wealthier supporters (*cough, *cough, Soros,*cough,) will be pumping millions into subverting this election. It remains to be seen how much they can do, but I wouldn’t underestimate the power of a bribe in this economy…

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BarryB
Posted on June 1, 2012 at 8:03am
Wayne Allyn Root is spot on in predicting a Romney landslide on election day. Many folks disillusioned with Barack Husain Obama are not responding to pollsters because they don’t want the hassle of being labelled as a racist, which is exactly where Obama is heading to this time. They will quietly go to the polls and pick Romney thereby confounding the pollsters, media and so called experts.

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- AmericanPatriot
  Posted on June 2, 2012 at 2:41pm
  As other writers have already pointed out, this will happen only if voter fraud and intimidation are not tolerated. That is going to be difficult at best with Eric Holder watching over things,
  
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Dudester
Posted on May 31, 2012 at 11:54pm
Anyone who predicts presidential election outcomes based on popular votes without even mentioning the electoral college is obviously misguided, misleading and mistaken.

Don’t waste your time with this article.

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charles116
Posted on May 31, 2012 at 10:42pm
Romney would lose to Adolf Hitler.
He’s about as vapid and clueless as they get.

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- hatethisadministration
  Posted on June 1, 2012 at 4:55am
  Your comment is lacking facts. How about backing up your statements with facts that support your
  argument. Are you Charles Zimmerman? You would have been better off to stay in the car. That is a fact, because if you had let the police do their job, you wouldn’t be behind bars.
  
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- DRAGONSEED
  Posted on June 1, 2012 at 4:56am
  He seems to be doing pretty da*ned good, despite a lot of attempts to undercut/sabotage him by the media and by Paul-nuts.
  
  P.S. “President Romney” has a nice ring to it.
  
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- Longbow
  Posted on June 1, 2012 at 9:46am
  President Romney …
  
  Um, President Romney …
  
  Excuse me, President Romney …
  
  Get used to it – you’re going to hear this a lot.
  
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- WithoutGuile
  Posted on June 1, 2012 at 10:44am
  Charles116 you are an idiot.. I don’t need facts to back that one up…your lack of facts does that for me.
  
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- Hollywood
  Posted on June 2, 2012 at 2:32pm
  No. McCain lost to him!
  
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DRAGONSEED
Posted on May 31, 2012 at 9:47pm
1. We of course HOPE this guy is right about ROMNEY winning by a landslide, but:

2. When he says “My vote will go to Libertarian Presidential candidate Gary Johnson in November,” you have to ask yourself if this guy who’s so eager to throw away his vote is just too whacky to even pay any attention to.

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- LowIncome
  Posted on June 2, 2012 at 12:13pm
  Maybe his own political beliefs differ so much from Romney that he is not willing to give up his beliefs to vote “popular”. I commend him for doing so. Voting your beliefs is why this country exists today. People were tired of the “staus quo” under the rule of England and wanted actual freedoms. Thus the USA was born. Making a prediction based on what he sees and voting something else is fine. It’s like knowing a particular sports team is going to win, but still cheering on the opposing team because you like them more.
  
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TxJewelya
Posted on May 31, 2012 at 6:59pm
Your column makes a lot of sense and I can only pray that you are right

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- Quack Addict
  Posted on June 2, 2012 at 8:18am
  That makes two of us.
  
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- testandverify
  Posted on June 2, 2012 at 3:45pm
  Make that three!
  
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WhatsUp
Posted on May 31, 2012 at 6:49pm
While we agree with your prediction (about the landslide), we can’t help but be concerned for what will happen in the days after the election–what might lame duck BHO as well as lame duck members of the House and Senate do/pass that would hurt our country further? We have no confidence in the govt now and we have no trust in them after the election either. Between November 2012 and the first of the year 2013 will be some of the most precarious days in the history of our country because of the destructive people in our govt in Washington DC.

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- WithoutGuile
  Posted on June 1, 2012 at 10:45am
  During Obama’s lame duck time…he will pardon every dirtbag who ever committed a crime against America… UGG it sickens me to think about it.
  
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