I can hear it now - every so-called “political expert” telling us how important this loss in Iowa is for Donald Trump.
They’ll tell you it’s a big deal; it’s the end of Trump; it proves Trump will under-perform the polls in other states too; it proves he’s not invincible; the bubble has burst; Trump is wounded.
This is all nonsense. As usual, the experts know nothing. As usual they are clueless blowhards trying to sound like they know something the rest of us don’t. As usual, they have it all wrong.
Donald Trump attends a campaign rally at the Sioux City Orpheum Theatre, Jan. 31, 2016. (Getty Images/Joe Raedle)
It’s no secret that I believe Trump will win the GOP nomination. I’ve been writing about it for months now at TheBlaze. I’ve been brimming with confidence.
Yet I was never confident he’d win Iowa. I’ve been scared to death of Iowa for months. I’ve said on hundreds of talk shows that Trump might lose Iowa, and then win most every other state. I’ve stated in the media again and again that it’s a shame his one “problem state” happens to come first.
Why was I so concerned with Iowa?
Because I’ve had “up close and personal experience” with Iowa. As a business speaker, I’ve spoken all over the world. I’ve enjoyed great success all over the world. I’ve had one serious bomb in my entire life - 15 years ago in Des Moines, Iowa.
I gave the same speech and same business advice in Iowa that I’ve given everywhere else in America and around the world. Everywhere I’ve ever spoken it resulted in standing ovations and record-setting results. But not in Iowa. In Iowa I bombed.
In Iowa my speech was received with a thud and a room full of faces staring through me like I wasn’t there. I asked the event organizer to share with me the audience comments so I could figure out what went wrong. I started to read the comments and my mouth fell open.
Iowans all said the exact same thing: They hated fast-talking, cocky New Yorkers. They thought I was “too New York, too aggressive, too combative, too intense, too high energy, and too confident.” Every single comment card contained some version of those words.
I’ve never forgotten that humbling experience. It was strange and shocking. What exactly did they want from a successful businessman giving advice on how to be successful? Did they expect a speech by a slow-talking, low-energy guy who didn’t believe in himself, or his talents? Because people with low energy and low confidence levels are rarely successful. Did they want someone to give a speech about the rules of success, who wasn’t successful?
Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton speaks at a rally at Washington High School in Cedar Rapids, Iowa, Saturday, Jan. 30, 2016. (AP Photo/Andrew Harnik)
I can’t change who I am. I can’t be quiet, low-energy and humble. Because I don’t know anything about those traits. Nor do they lead to success.
So if Iowans found me “too New York, too confident, too fast talking, too aggressive” what could they possibly think about Donald Trump?
Trump is me on steroids. How would they react to that?
Because of my experience in Iowa, I suspected Trump was walking into a buzz saw. Trump never had a chance. Iowans just don’t like loud-mouthed, fast talking, cocky New Yorkers. It’s like blood in the water to sharks. It goes back generations. You’re never going to change that DNA.
Monday’s results were about as good as I could expect. He actually over-performed considering the audience and their personal preferences and prejudices.
So don’t let the experts out-analyze, out-think and exaggerate the results. This was about the best one could expect for Trump in Iowa. Iowa never picks winners. Iowa chooses the ultra-conservative and ultra-religious candidate who can never win the nomination. See Mike Huckabee in 2008 and Rick Santorum in 2012. Congratulations and good luck to Ted Cruz.
I have no such reservations for the rest of the country. I’ve predicted for a month now a close result in Iowa, followed by resounding victories for Trump in New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada, followed by a Super Tuesday Southern sweep on March 1. Then it’s on to the GOP nomination. Nothing changed on Monday night in Iowa for the GOP presidential nomination.
Much more significant was Hillary’s performance in Iowa.
The Democrat vote was so close, they resorted to a coin toss to find a winner. Even with Hillary as the official the winner, she is the biggest loser in modern political history.
That’s not a victory for the woman who led by over 50 points a year ago. Hillary is Mount Rushmore. She is the most famous female politician in the history of America. Hillary was "inevitable." All it woudl take is to switch a few hundred votes and she would have lost to a nobody named Bernie Sanders.
After decades as first lady, senator, secretary of state, and raising zillions of dollars, she just ran neck and neck with a socialist from Vermont! Hillary put up a good front, but I guarantee you she was crying in the bathroom of her plane.
Next Tuesday Hillary will lose New Hampshire by a wide margin. Bernie will raise tens of millions based on his newfound momentum. Maybe $100 million. And “inevitable Hillary” will quickly become a losing proposition. That’s if she isn’t indicted before the Democratic convention. Democrats sense blood in the water. Soon you’ll hear rumors of Joe Biden, Al Gore and Elizabeth Warren getting into the race.
Iowa didn’t hurt Trump…but it destroyed Hillary.
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