Multiple progressive outlets have recently seized on a poll that seems to show Republicans losing ground in the fight over female voters, which they attribute to the recent fight over the Obama administration's contraception mandate currently being waged in Congress. However, RealClearPolitics has an article out today pointing out all the reasons why that particular diagnosis is not only alarmist, but dead wrong in almost every conceivable way:
The contraception firestorm concerned substantive differences over women’s health policy, feminism, religious liberty and abortion. But the heated debate over women’s issues, which began at the close of January, did not cost Republicans women’s support. Quinnipiac and Public Policy Polling (D) exhibit the same trend. Gallup found that Romney actually improved with women between mid-December and mid-February, a few weeks into the contraception debate. Obama’s job performance rating with women, in the Gallup poll, has remained steady throughout the debate, bobbing around 50 percent since the beginning of the year.[...]
Republicans should be concerned. The GOP nominee cannot win with only 37 percent of the female vote. Yet early head-to-head polls are not historically predictive. George W. Bush, like Romney, earned only 37 percent of the female vote in the CBS poll in February of 2000. But Bush won 43 percent of women on Election Day.
The article also warns that this would be less of a silly conclusion with a candidate like Rick Santorum, who has made social issues the centerpiece of his campaign for President. However, as they suggest, Romney has no obvious baggage that would cause him problems with female voters once the general election begins.