If there's a bounce to be had after the coming days of political convention-ing, it will be Mitt Romney's. While voters have had four years to size up President Obama, the GOP convention this week marks Romney's first major opportunity to attract attention from undecided voters and those unfamiliar with the former Massachusetts governor.
Political analyst Michael Barone notes that if Romney plans to win in November, he needs a post-convention bounce:
Gallup, the organization that has been in the polling business longer than any other, has been measuring convention bounces since 1964.
Over the years, Gallup reports, Democratic nominees have gotten a 6-point bounce from their conventions and Republicans a 5-point bounce.
The figures even out, however, if you eliminate the 16-point bounce Bill Clinton got from the July 1992 Democratic convention in New York. That came after independent candidate Ross Perot, who had been leading in polls in the spring, suddenly withdrew from the race and endorsed Clinton.
But although the two parties have gotten the same average bounce, there is more variability for Democrats than Republicans. [...]
Will Romney get a bounce? By this time next week, we'll see, but more important is whether he can hold on to most of it until Nov. 6.
Mike Opelka has more on the bounce effect here.