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Prediction: Romney scores a decisive win


If you haven't already posted your predictions for tomorrow's elections, be sure to do so here.

Ann Coulter has weighed in.

Tiffany Gabbay has tossed out her 2 cents.

Now brace yourselves for my prediction...

I'm not as optimistic as Glenn, but I'm also not as pessimistic as Stu. By my count, I think Mitt Romney will be the nation's 45th president with 295 electoral votes.

How'd I get to 295?

Here's my map:

  • NEW HAMPSHIRE: The state may be surrounded by northeastern liberals, but its motto is "Live Free or Die."  I can't believe such a pro-freedom state would side with Michael Bloomberg in favor of Obama.  Plus, Romney has a slight lead going into election day.  It's only 4 electoral votes, but could make a big difference in such a close election.
  • OHIO: Following the GOP gubernatorial victory of John Kasich and all he's done to turn around the state's economy, I give Romney the edge in Ohio.  Assuming good turnout, I think the Catholic vote will also help Romney pick up Ohio's 18 electoral votes.
  • PENNSYLVANIA: If Romney wins Pennsylvania, Tuesday will be an early night.  However, I'm predicting President Obama pulls out a victory in Pennsylvania.  The most recent polls have Obama leading and unless turnout in urban areas drops significantly, I think Obama will hold. (Sorry, Michael Barone.)
  • FLORIDA: All signs point to Romney victory... as long as we don't end up with any "hanging chads" in 2012.
  • MICHIGAN: As much as I want Michigan to go red this election (and believe that it has the potential), I'm keeping the state in Obama's win column.  This state will come down to turnout -- If Democrats can't mobilize voters in Detroit, the conservative west side of the state could pull through for Romney.  I'm not holding my breath, though...
  • WISCONSIN: Sure it's the home of progressivism, but there are two key reasons I'm hopeful Wisconsin will go red for the first time in 2 decades this year: Scott Walker and Paul Ryan.  Wisconsin is obviously Paul Ryan's home state, but more than that, I think voters' rejection of recall efforts against Gov. Scott Walker signal a clear shift in the state's priorities.  Remember what the polls said before the recall election?  They all said it was too close to call, but Walker scored a decisive victory with 53% of the vote.  I personally don't think battle for Wisconsin is as close as the polls suggest.
  • NORTH CAROLINA: Obama gave up on winning this traditionally Republican state a long time ago -- a win for Romney.
  • IOWA: I'm giving Iowans the benefit of the doubt and not assuming that they would trade the good of the country for some more farming subsidies from the Obama administration.  I've put the state's 6 electoral votes in Romney's column.
  • NEVADA: It's the state who has repeatedly elected Harry Reid.  I've lost all faith that the state will actually vote smart and pick Romney.  Obama scores their 6 electoral votes.
  • COLORADO: Two words: Red Rocks.  As this rally demonstrated, Romney has some electric momentum in the Rocky Mountain state.  I think he'll keep it up through Tuesday's voting and take the state's 9 electoral votes.

All in all, I predict Romney will walk away with an electoral college victory over Obama, 295-243.  We'll just have to wait and see what happens...

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