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Hm: Could the GOP be running the House for a while?


Good news for John Boehner & the GOP...?

Before the election, I highlighted a report arguing that Republican control of state legislatures would end up earning them about 11 seats because of redistricting. The fact that the House total barely budged in a very good year for Democrats nationally — and in which House Democrats won the popular vote — suggests that this probably played a role.

This is especially clear if you take a look at the share of House seats won by Democrats in states where Republican-controlled legislatures redistricted in 2011 and 2012, and compare that to the share of the vote President Obama won.

The bad news for Democrats?  The next Census isn't for another eight years and making big gains in the House will be nearly impossible until 2022 when districts are redrawn.

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