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Washington Post analysis confirms Dems are losing impeachment argument in key swing states

'Battleground state polls show a more negative reaction...'

Joe Raedle/Getty Images

An analysis by the Washington Post's polling experts has bad news for Democrats hoping the Ukraine scandal would weaken President Trump.

After months of bad headlines and two weeks of public testimonies, voters in key battleground states are not buying the Democrats' impeachment case against the president. The Post's average of a dozen polls conducted since October in Arizona, Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, and Wisconsin found that 51 percent of voters are opposed to impeachment and 44 percent support it.

Pollsters Scott Clement and Emily Guskin also noted: "Battleground state polls show a more negative reaction to the impeachment inquiry, signaling more risk to Democrats and potential benefit for Trump," adding that "support for impeachment in key 2020 states lags the country overall."

Nationally, voters remain divided

As TheBlaze has pointed out, support for impeaching Trump spiked nationally on or around October 14, just a few weeks after the Ukraine scandal broke in late September. However, public opinion began turning on the Democrats the more voters learned about their case.

Clement and Guskin looked at the polls before and after the House Intelligence Committee's public hearings and found little movement:

The Post's average of nationally representative polls conducted since the start of the House's public hearings on Nov. 13 finds 47 percent of Americans support impeaching and removing Trump, while 43 percent are opposed. That level of support is little different from the 47 percent support in the two weeks before hearings began and 48 percent support earlier in October.

The two analysts noted that Independent voters are also divided on impeachment: 42 percent in support and 44 percent opposed.

Trump's popularity has 'barely moved'

Additionally, the Post examined Trump's job approval ratings, which are a baseline indicator of how voters feel about his performance, and found they have "barely moved" since the Democrats initiated their impeachment inquiry.
The stability of Trump's approval ratings affirms just how locked-in Americans are in their views toward Trump, even as some independents and Democrats changed their opinion on whether Congress should impeach and remove him from office. The lack of movement in this essential measure of Trump's political standing also indicates that while most Americans think Trump did something wrong in his dealings with Ukraine, news and congressional testimony about this issue have not shifted how people feel about the president.

According to Gallup's polling over the past 10 weeks, the percentage of voters who say they approve of the job Trump is doing as president has remained within the range of 39 to 43 percent. Quinnipiac University polls show similar numbers with 38 to 41 percent of registered voters approving of Trump's performance during the same period.

One last thing…
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