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Politics Unemployment numbers good for Obama — but not good for much else

Unemployment numbers good for Obama but not good for much else

The chart above puts Obamanomics in its unpleasant historical context, in case anyone really needs to be reminded. But the terrifying thing is that the situation is far worse.

Take the news on unemployment. Yes, the United States added 120,000 jobs in November and the president will no doubt claim some victory – we’re getting out of a “ditch,” after all. The unemployment rate dropped to 8.6 percent from 9 percent and a broader unemployment rate from 16.2 percent to 15.6 percent. It is at its lowest level since August 2009. And revisions to previous months, we are told, point in a good direction.

The New York Times also assures me there are “Signs of Hope in Jobs Report; Unemployment Drops to 8.6%.” So who am I to ask questions?

Hey, I’m not an economist. But the unemployment rate, though useful, seems to be an awfully overvalued metric. If the workforce is shrinking, then yes, the unemployment rate is likely to drop — it should drop — as well. Over the past month, labor force participation dropped from 64.2 to 64 percent. Americans are giving up the search for work as over 315,000 stopped looking searching in November alone. That’s a lot of people.

What would the unemployment rate look like if we had the same level of active workers as we did when the recession first struck? The American Enterprise Institute’s James Pethokoukis tweeted: “If labor force size was same as Oct., U-3 unemployment rate would be 8.9%; same as when Obama took office, 11%”. Eleven percent.

Apologies for my cynicism, but though the unemployment rate does not offer us the full story, politically speaking, it is an important political ingredient that could help President Obama — the man who helped turn a recession into a new state of normal – win a deeply undeserved second term for a couple of reasons:

1- Unemployment rates will decline and the economy will look a lot healthier than it actually is to many less- informed voters. Everyday Americans don’t have the time to parse unemployment statistics – they just want to see the right trajectory. In the end, though, none of the underlying fundamental problems have changed.

2- The more Americans drop out of the work force the more Americans will be tied to some form of government dependency, the lifeblood of progressive politics. We are already experiencing record number of citizens relying on government, and while progressives might find dependency moral and beneficial, it is a sure sign of an ailing nation.

And with all this going on, Democrats fix their moral focus on the populist “wealthy aren’t paying a fair share” canard because it latches onto populist anger and feeds the restive envy that some (still few) people feel during hard times. It’s a play for votes not for economic growth. How does “askingpeople to “sacrifice just a little bit more” help create jobs?

Rather than thinking of ways to free up the wealthy so they can generate more profit and more self-sustaining jobs, the president peddles a public sector union-bailout “jobs” bill we can’t pay afford. A bill that would only continue to exacerbate the problems that state governments face. Rather than allow the economy to move forward — or anywhere, actually — we continue to bail out rotten institutions, regulatory expansion and now we’re just sitting around waiting for another election.

All in all, pretty depressing for “good news.”
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Follow @davidharsanyi.

Comments (10)

  • teddlybar
    Posted on December 5, 2011 at 4:57pm

    I notice that post war recessions seem to occur every 3-6 years except for 1960-1969, 1981-1990 & 1990-2001. I can‘t help wondering if it’s purely coincidence that in the middle of the first long period occurred the Kennedy tax cuts, in the middle-end of the second occurred the Reagan tax cuts, and in the middle-end of the third occurred the Clinton capital gains tax cuts.

    Report Post »  
  • einmanronn
    Posted on December 5, 2011 at 1:50pm

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  • flfshrmn
    Posted on December 4, 2011 at 11:04am

    Job creation my @ss! What event take place every year about this same time that has employers looking for part-time help in great numbers? People better wake up now! Get your $$$ out of the banks and in YOUR posession as soon as possible. Maybe even invest in a PM or a piece of land. Just leave enough to pay bills and function, but don’t leave large sums of paper (dollars, CD’s, ect)anywhere or you may very well lose it all. MF Global is a canary in the mine shaft and events in EU as well, for what we are to face here in the US. Why would our government introduce BILL 1867 that would declair the world, including the US a battlefield AND to give them the authority to detain an American citizen indefinately without due-process? The Constitution is null and void!! They have prepared for this moment with FEMA Camps that can hold 10mil. people. What people are they expecting to have to detain indefinately? My guess is the people that get out of control when the FED Gov. uses the banks to steal everyones savings, checking, non-leveraged, and leveraged investment accounts, pensions, 401K and anything else that is a promisorry PAPER NOTE. They may even confiscate PM’s as all of this HAS happened before in our history. Actions like this will piss-off and get several million US CITIZENS held indefinately in detention centers. How can all of this and Bill 1867 NOT paint a picture? Take care of youselves and your families and keep your powder dry. Merry Christmas everyone!

    Report Post » flfshrmn  
  • Fina Biscotti
    Posted on December 4, 2011 at 5:23am

    Republicans were publicly unimpressed with the jobs report, insisting Obama hadn’t done enough and emphasizing that the jobless rate was still higher than when he took office in January 2009, when it stood at 7.7 percent.

    “Any job creation is welcome news, but the jobless rate in this country is still unacceptable. Today marks the 34th consecutive month of unemployment above 8 percent,” said House Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio.

    Report Post »  
  • Fina Biscotti
    Posted on December 4, 2011 at 5:22am

    Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, another Republican seeking Obama’s job, noted that a major part of the sharp drop in the unemployment rate was “not because entrepreneurs were creating new jobs” but because some 300,000 Americans “have simply given up looking for work.”

    “The Obama model of class warfare, government takeovers in the economy and creating fear and uncertainty for job-creators have failed,” Gingrich asserted.

    Report Post »  
  • Fina Biscotti
    Posted on December 4, 2011 at 5:19am

    Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, in a Fox News interview, acknowledged that the report was good news but said it wouldn’t help Obama politically.

    “This is the slowest recovery we’ve seen since (President Herbert) Hoover,” Romney said. “He’s going to have a hard time putting perfume on this pig.”

    Hoover held office from 1929 to early 1933, at the outset of the Great Depression.

    Despite stimulus measures by the Obama administration, Congress and the Federal Reserve, unemployment has remained high, peaking at 10.1 percent in October 2009 and staying around 9 percent for most of 2011.

    Report Post »  
  • kkatzmeow
    Posted on December 3, 2011 at 10:13am

    In the end times good will be called evil and evil will be called good. Are we there yet?

    Report Post »  
  • bettydupre
    Posted on December 3, 2011 at 3:03am

    Unemployment in construction is 21.2%, I wish these guys would tell the truth. We all need to education ourself in this tough market only way is a degree or change your career.. search online for High Speed Universities for career advice

    Report Post »  
  • Bonnieblue2A
    Posted on December 2, 2011 at 1:34pm

    All the financial talking heads are suspicious of the numbers and saying not to trust them. Likely the good news is another result of fuzzy liberal math. So many people have dropped out of the workforce completely that the unemployment number means very little.

    Report Post »  
    • cemerius
      Posted on December 2, 2011 at 2:32pm

      Yeah my wife and I look at each other and laugh at this numbers game!! She has been unemployed since 2009 and after only 6 weeks here “unemployment benefits” went away!! I make enough to be comfortable so we are not on any “government handout” but she is NOT one of these “numbers”! I only bring up the “only 6 weeks of unemployment” because this was the time that “Congress/President” hailed the fact that they passed a law to extend unemployment benefits to 99 weeks!! Another numbers game!!!! Statistics are as useful as a full diaper!

      Report Post » cemerius  

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