World

Iran’s Nuclear Program: Facts are Facts

Oct. 26, 2012 2:53pm

- Endowment for Middle East Truth

Sarah Stern is the President and Founder of the Endowment for Middle East Truth.

We all know what it takes to win an election now days. We all know that the candidates must cater to the center, to the undecided voters. Therefore it can prove difficult, judging from the responses of Governor Mitt Romney and President Barack Obama during Monday night’s debate, to appreciate the distinctions between the two candidates’ positions. In terms of foreign policy we often have to look a little closer, to read between the lines, in order to find clues as to their true foreign policy, such as who their advisors are, or what their running mates say. If we go back and look at the Vice-Presidential debate, we find the following exchange particularly telling.

If there is one thing that I would readily agree with Vice President Biden about, in his recent debate with Congressman Paul Ryan, it is that “Facts are facts.”

That is why it was so difficult for me to listen to Mr. Biden declaring with a great deal of confidence and certitude that the Iranians have quite a good deal of time to go before they have a nuclear bomb.

“They are a good way away,” said Mr. Biden. “When my friend (Rep. Paul Ryan) talks about fissile material, they have to take this highly enriched uranium, get it from 20 percent up, then they have to be able to have something to put it in. There is no weapon that the Iranians have at this point…”

There are, however, a few facts that the Vice President avoided telling us:

1.) The most difficult aspect of the entire nuclear weapons project is the uranium enrichment part. That is why the international community has been so focused on that aspect of it. It takes a good deal of time to enrich the uranium to 20 percent level of purity. The Iranians already have enough low enriched uranium for several (3 to 4) nuclear weapons at the 20 percent level, but for weapons grade uranium, they need to get it to a higher level of purity of 90 percent.

However, as Former Director of the CIA James Woolsey once explained to me, it is essential to understand that the purer the level of enrichment, the less interval of time it takes to get to the next level.

Getting to 20 percent is difficult, and it is subsequently easier to get from 20 to 50 percent, and then from 50 to 90 percent.

According to a recent Wall Street Journal report of October 9th, noted scientific experts at the Institute for Science and International Security have stated that Iran is only two to four months away from the ninety per cent enrichment level. As I write these words, centrifuges are assiduously spinning in plants in Fordow, near the holy city of Qum, in Natanz, Busheir, Isfahan and Arak.

2.)  Many, including our Vice President, are under the erroneous assumption that a weapons delivery system would be worked on only after the process of uranium enrichment was complete; i.e., that the procedure is sequential. But the evidence is clear that the Iranians have been working on a delivery mechanism for years, simultaneously with their enrichment.

This past Sept. 25, Iran test fired missiles at a military exercise designed to reach the Strait of Hormuz. This is the third missile drill the Iranians have had in the last four months.

We know that the Iranians have been working consistently to expand the range for these missiles. The only question is whether they know how to assemble and attach the enriched uranium to the missile warhead. I have been told that that is infinitely less complex than is the enrichment process.

3.) If there is one thing the 2007 National Intelligence Estimate taught us, or should have taught us, it is that nobody can prove anything about the Iranians with any degree of certitude. In an unusual admission a few weeks ago, the Director of Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization, Fereydoon Abbasi, was quoted as saying in Al Hayat that the Iranian government has provided false information in the past to protect its nuclear program. He stated that “sometimes the Iranians present certain weaknesses that they don’t have, and sometimes, they present certain strengths that they don’t have.”

As Ambassador Dore Gold has stated, “By admitting that their diplomacy has been based on a series of lies, the Iranians put into doubt whether any of their statements can be relied upon.”

The Iranians are also masters of the Islamic art of “Taqiyah,” which is derived from the Arabic “to shield (oneself). This permits dissimulation and even lying in the furtherance of Islamic law, including when pursuing goals against the so-called “unbelievers.”

4.) What we do know is that the Iranian military facility at Parchin has been used for trigger testing of a nuclear weapon, to produce the explosive charges which set off the chain reactions necessary for a nuclear explosion. We have seen aerial footage of trucks and other vehicles clearing and razing the earth, bulldozing buildings, and moving materials out of the back. Occasionally, the site has been covered by a pink tarp, as if something were being hidden.

We know that in 2003, there was a research and test site called Lavizan –Shan. When the IAEA began to get suspicious of what was going on there, it was ultimately razed to the ground, with top soil put on it, and made into a city park.

5.) We also know that with his expressed over-confidence in the amount of time that the West has before a nuclear Iran, the Vice President sends the Iranians a dangerous signal that we are not serious, and also sends a signal to the Israelis that they are very much, on their own, particularly under an Obama administration.

This is not the first time the U.S. has sent a “bad” signal to Israel regarding Iran, and almost a nod of approval to Iran. On August 31st, General Martin Dempsey, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff said, he did not “wish to be complicit” in a unilateral strike on Tehran.  His use of the word “complicit” was both hostile towards Israel and morally objectionable, as though he was saying that protecting one’s nation from the threat of genocide is a crime.

6.) We also know that the Iranian nuclear bomb is not just a threat to Israel, but to the entire world. The Iranians would like to take advantage of the current state of chaos that the so-called “Arab Spring” has wrought to rearrange the order of the entire Arab and Muslim world, and claim the mantle of Shiite hegemony. An Iranian nuclear bomb would surely create a nuclear arms race in every capital in the Middle East, as has been hinted at by other Muslim nations like Saudi Arabia, and it would be the most de-stabilizing single factor in that region of the world since the great European powers redrew the borders after World War I.

7.)  Israel is only the “Minor Satan.” The United States is the Great Satan.”

We know that almost the very first thing that the Iranians did as soon as the Khomeini Revolution occurred in 1979 was to seize control of the American embassy and take our embassy officials hostage. This was a declaration of war on the United States, and this Iranian war against the U.S. has continued to the current day. It is Iranian manufactured IEDs that have killed so many Americans, and caused many more American troops to come home from Iraq or Afghanistan missing a leg or an arm.

It is Iran that tried to blow up a restaurant on American soil with a Saudi diplomat inside. It is Iran that was responsible for the 1983 bombing of a U.S. Marine barracks that killed 241 marines. It is Iran who has been identified as the “world’s leading sponsor of terrorism and terrorist financing” by the Secretary of State. It is Iran which has been upheld in court as having facilitated the terror attack on 9/11.

The false sense of certitude on Iranian progress in developing nuclear weapons that the Vice President conveyed at the VP debate is not at all helpful when dealing with a destabilizing nuclear menace such as Iran. I understand that the Vice President would like to appear as the non-trigger happy candidate, but looking at a despotic crazed regime like the Iranians through rose-colored glasses ultimately just empowers the mullahs.

Sarah N. Stern is Founder and President of EMET, the Endowment for Middle East Truth, an unabashedly pro-Israel and pro-American think tank and policy shop, in our nation’s capital

Comments (12)

  • Fitz of DE
    Nov. 1, 2012 at 11:29am

    I do not understand people who think &/or believe Israel is an aggressor? The enemy of Israel is my enemy as they have at least 21 differnt countrie calling for the KILLING of all JEWS, wiping out the Nation of Israel that has been given a promise from the Creator, IT IS THE LAND. No I know why, THe fool has said there is NO G_D…nor even have read the Bible. I do know this the Y H V H will NOT let evil over take the LAND of ISRAEL. Since 1948 when the folks have taken the PROMISED land & made it blossom again…mmmmm think on these things MOONSTRUCK2

    Report this comment

    Fitz of DE  
  • bonesiii
    Oct. 29, 2012 at 8:30pm

    Yeah, I felt like my intelligence was being insulted when Biden kept acting like “Pshaw, they might be close to a nuke, but they don’t have a rocket!!!111!”

    I know we throw around the phrase, “rocket scientist”, but it really isn’t that hard to make one. And who says a nuke can only be delivered by rocket anyways? What about a kamikaze attack? These are terrorists, they’d be totally fine with that strategy.

    These guys refuse to take our security seriously. They need to go.

    BHAAAyad. To quote the Obamaphone lady.

    Report this comment

    bonesiii  
  • Pigpen
    Oct. 27, 2012 at 6:08pm

    Firstly, Ms Stern, I would be interested to know if you hold an Israeli passport. I find it dubious that you present yourself here today as an “American” who is concerned about the TRUTH in the Middle East. Secondly, why is Israel’s own policy of nuclear ambiguity never discussed? Wouldn’t a more REALISTIC interpretation of Iran’s nuclear policy be to view it as an attempt at obtaining a BALANCE of power with Israel? And YTF should I be concerned about Israel or Israel’s security at all? My nation is struggling in a Cold War with China, (A Cold War which MANY of YOUR TRIBE have publicly declared that the USA should LOSE) and crypto-Israelis such as yourself successfully keep my nation’s martial resources tied up in the Middle East. There is a MEDIA BLACKOUT on the state of Sino-Japanese relations. There will be shots fired between the USA’s ally Japan and China soon, and Americans have been kept in the dark by YOUR TRIBE that dominates the media. And Israel is my ally how? I point to the USS Liberty, the Lavon Affair, the Lehi Group, not to mention Julius Rosenberg, Ethel Greenglass Rosenberg, David Greenglass, Ruth Greenglass, Morton Sobell, J. Robert Oppenheimer, Leo Szilard, Bruno Pontecorvo, George Silverman, Morris Cohen, Robert Soblen, Jack Soble, and of course Bibi’s favorite Jonathan Pollard. Why don’t you go ask China for help? (After all, CHINA is your tribe’s favorite world superpower!) America no longer wishes to serve as Goshen to Israel anymore!

    Report this comment

    Pigpen  
    • bonesiii
      Oct. 29, 2012 at 8:18pm

      “And Israel is my ally how?”
      Wow. Just wow.

      I knew some on the left were going down this road — you know what it’s called — but I didn’t know some would actually say it out loud. Do you really need it explained? Would doing so even matter, or are you determined to hate them no matter what?

      If we, as citizens of different countries around the world, don’t stand together against evil, evil will win. It really boils down to that. Please study history. This isn’t just an opinion, it’s been proven over and over. Look at the leadup to WWII for example. The good must stand together.

      And while I’m sure your counter would be that you’re not convinced Israel is ‘good’, because they’re not perfect, if the most good don’t stand together, any good that remains will be utterly swallowed up eventually. No, if Israel has done wrong, the right thing to do is urge them to reform, not to abandon them.

      Please stop playing politics with Israel. This is serious.

      Report this comment

      bonesiii  
  • jman-6
    Oct. 26, 2012 at 11:46pm

    Just add these few facts to her list. 1-IAEA report just released stated that Iran now has a significant amount of 20% uranium, enough to make between 3-5 bombs. Remember O called Bibi a liar and a warmonger for saying this very thing by insisting our intel was better and we had 6 mo or more even though he knew a month before the report became public. Thats why Bibi embarassed him at the UN with the cartoon speech. 2-It will take 3-4 wks to weaponize this when Khameni gives the order which should be complete by 1st wk Nov.! 3- Israel is going to strike no later than Jan but more like Nov-Dec time frame. 4- Our troops were over run in the MFO in the Sinai by terrorist but you’ve not heard anything about it. 5- We sold Israel out and unless Romney reverses this you can bet GODS’ judgement will be harsh and America is finished. You can disregard that as bible jargon at your own parel but mark my words America will never recover if this don’t change! GOD SPEED HE is TRUTH

    Report this comment

    jman-6  
    • goengo
      Oct. 27, 2012 at 5:06pm

      I believe (and I hope) that Bibi will wait until after Romney is inaugurated (if he has that much time). He has to know that Obama will not support him, but Romney will.

      Report this comment

      goengo  
    • goengo
      Oct. 27, 2012 at 5:17pm

      I believe (and I hope) that Bibi will wait until Romney is inaugurated. He knows Obama will not support him, but Romney will.

      Report this comment

      goengo  
    • moonstruck2
      Oct. 30, 2012 at 9:37am

      What makes you think God is with the aggressor? If isreal aggresses a war with Iran God will not be with isreal! First of all, Iran has not started any wars in the past 30 years ( the war with Iraq was started by saddam hussein) so if isreal decides to act preemptively do you think God will still be with isreal? I think not!

      Report this comment

      moonstruck2  
  • KidCharlemagne
    Oct. 26, 2012 at 7:04pm

    Here’s some more facts that not everybody knows about.

    From The Nuclear Vault: The Iranian Nuclear Program, 1974-1978:

    “In 1974 Department of State officials wrote that if the Shah’s dictatorship collapsed and Iran became unstable, “domestic dissidents or foreign terrorists might easily be able to seize any special nuclear material stored in Iran for use in bombs.” Moreover, “an aggressive successor to the Shah might consider nuclear weapons the final item needed to establish Iran’s complete military dominance of the region.”

    However in a 2005 interview, former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger claims that this was never discussed at all (instead suggesting that the deal for the U.S. to start up Iran’s nuclear program was just a simple transaction):

    “Interestingly, former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger, who presided over the negotiations during 1974-1976, has downplayed the role of proliferation during the nuclear negotiations with Iran. In a 2005 Washington Post interview, he said that “I don’t think the issue of proliferation came up”; “They were an allied country, and this was a commercial transaction. We didn’t address the question of them one day moving toward nuclear weapons.”

    Remember this American TV (featuring the Shah of Iran) ad from the 1970′s?:
    “Guess Who’s Building Nuclear Pow

    Report this comment

    KidCharlemagne  
  • twistin
    Oct. 26, 2012 at 4:09pm

    Obama is not a War Time Consigliere.

    Report this comment

    twistin  
  • twistin
    Oct. 26, 2012 at 4:08pm

    On some issues, like credibility, both candidates say similars things, that’s true.

    The difference is, Romney means it, and Obama is B.S.ing.

    Report this comment

    twistin  
    • moonstruck2
      Oct. 30, 2012 at 9:48am

      The president is trying to avoid a very destructive situation over there that is already a tragic scene. Why would america want to assist isreal against Iran over some silly statements that were probably taken out of context anyway to justify (like destroying isreal)! Isreal already has nuclear weapons of mass destruction! I think isreal is more afraid of a balance of power in the region than anything else..

      Report this comment

      moonstruck2  

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