FAIL: Ed Schultz prediction goes down in flames

Like most of America, I rarely think about Ed Schultz. But for some reason, I happened to remember his recent ‘I’m going to kick Fox’s ass!’ rant of his that made the rounds on the internet a couple of months ago. 'We can get Fox before the mid-term. I know we can!' the host predicted. So, I’ve decided to do what Ed hoped no one would do: a ratings follow up. Here’s a refresher:

Transcript:

Now, Beck has big ratings at 5 o'clock. But at 6 o'clock against me, they drop damn near through the floor. They lose half their audience. In the meantime, The Ed Show, right now, this month of August, we are beating CNN in the demographic 25-54 by 1.2 million people. In total viewers for the month of August, we are beating CNN by 3.77 million.

We're starting to play in the arena of the big boys now. And it's not because of me. It's because you, the viewers and listeners to this show. Now, the other night we got as close as we've ever gotten to beating Fox. Bret Baier beat me by 103 points in the demo, 103. Now you see, you have to understand that, they have a big audience but, hell, they're all old! In 25-54, we're getting in the neighborhood.

...And you have no idea, in my bones, in my very soul! In my heart! I want to kick Fox's ass! I want to drive them into the ground! I want to spike the ball! I want to kick 'em in the teeth on the way back to the huddle! And then I want to turn around and lift my leg on 'em! Because that's all they're worth!

Before we get dirty and look at the numbers - a couple of quickies about that late August 27th rant.

On his ‘we beat CNN’ argument. Stu has done an in-depth breakdown, here's the cliff note version. Notice his use of total viewers for the entire month. This is an attempt to make it sound like he’s thrashing CNN by millions! In reality, he’s barely squeaking by CNN (a network currently suffering ratings genocide) on a night to night basis. But later, when he refers to how close he is coming to beating Fox – he abandons the monthly rating and narrows it down to a single day. Furthermore, he invents a new ratings category: ‘he beat me by 103 points in the demo’. Points? This isn’t basketball, Ed. That’s 103,000 people. He also cherry picked the day he came the closest to Fox, while ignoring his humiliating defeats on all the other days. In case you still weren’t impressed, Ed reminds you that those 103,000 have a defect: ‘hell, they’re all old!’, and obviously old people don’t really count (and they wonder why we’re concerned about death panels).

Now that Ed has rallied his audience and had a chance to build on that sweet 103 ‘point’ narrow loss from late August, let’s take a look at how he’s fared since. Below are the heads up in demo #’s (25-54) along with another column for the amount in which Baier wins by. Here we go:

Aug 23: Baier 388 Ed 226 +162

Aug 24: Baier 377 Ed 173 +204

Aug 25: Baier 308 Ed 117 +191

Aug 26: Baier 356 Ed 147 +209

Aug 27: Baier 257 Ed 204 +53 (Declaration of Ass Kicking day – this is as good as it gets)

Aug 30: Baier 358 Ed 182 +176

Aug 31: Baier 373 Ed 173 +200

August total: Baier +1,195,000

August nightly avg: Baier +186

Sep 1: Baier 409 Ed 212 +197

Sep 2: Baier 304 Ed 186 +118

Sep 3: Baier 368 Ed 195 +173

Sep 7: Baier 413 Ed 188 +225

Sep 8: Baier 365 Ed 137 +228

Sep 9: Baier 431 Ed 174 +257

Sep 10: Baier 290 Ed 156 +134

Sep 13: Baier 342 Ed 174 +168

Sep 14: Baier 326 Ed 205 +121

Sep 15: Baier 366 Ed 180 +186

Sep 16: Baier 353 Ed 193 +160

Sep 17: Baier 261 Ed 184 +77

Sep 20: Baier 370 Ed 203 +167

Sep 21: Baier 368 Ed 180 +188

Sep 22: Baier 386 Ed 209 +177

Sep 23: Baier 385 Ed 168 +217

Sep 24: Baier 459 Ed 193 +266

Sep 28: Baier 400 Ed 119 +281

Sep 29: Baier 386 Ed 192 +194

Sep 30: Baier 332 Ed 129 +203

September total: Baier +3,737,000

September nightly avg: Baier +187

Oct 1: Baier 274 Ed 87 +187

Oct 4: Baier 420 Ed 205 +215

Oct 5: Baier 431 Ed 148 +283

Oct 6: Baier 460 Ed 129 +331

Oct 7: Baier 461 Ed 136 +325

Oct 8: Baier 354 Ed 189 +165

Oct 11: Baier 351 Ed 195 +156

Oct 12: Baier 400 Ed 113 +287

Oct 13: Baier 518 Ed 184 +334

Oct 14: Baier 454 Ed 173 +281

Oct 15: Baier 322 Ed 132 +190

Oct 18: Baier 345 Ed 163 +182

Oct 19: Baier 449 Ed 118 +331

Oct 20: Baier 448 Ed 179 +269

Oct 21: Baier 459 Ed 136 +323

Oct 22: Baier 444 Ed 201 +243

Oct 25: Baier 416 Ed 188 +228

Oct 26: Baier 477 Ed 186 +291

Oct 27: Baier 398 Ed 241 +157

Oct 28: Baier 432 Ed 189 +243

Oct 29: Baier 521 Ed 227 +294

October total: Baier +5,315,000

October nightly avg: Baier +253

Nov 1: Baier 529 Ed 244 +285

Nov 2: Baier 843 Ed 318 +525

Nov 3: Baier 721 Ed 248 +473

Nov 4: Baier 535 Ed 179 +356

Nov 5: Baier 490 Ed 142 +348

Nov 8: Baier 467 Ed 153 +314

Nov 9: Baier 502 Ed 174 +328

Nov 10: Baier 477 Ed 192 +285

Nov 11: Baier 387 Ed 234 +153

Nov 12: Baier 412 Ed 204 +208

November total: Baier +3,275,000

November nightly avg: Baier +327.5

You may be playing with the big boys, Ed – but they are still kicking your ass. Using Ed ratings math it’s a 13,522,000 ass kicking (in demo). Baier wins by +229 per night. And if you look at the month to month, it’s getting worse by the minute for Ed (Aug = Baier +186, Sep = Baier +187, Oct = Baier +253, Nov = Baier +327). Wow – Baier is beating Ed by 327,000 people in demo per night? Ouch.

And just for fun, let’s use a little Ed mathematics for one more stat - total audience (as opposed to the in Demo rating). Since Ed is all the rage with da youth, perhaps he fared a little better.

Nope, he still lost. But only by 84,755,000 people. Ed only needs to convince 28% of the entire United States of America in order to draw even with Baier. Isn’t Ed math fun?

I’m not sure how big Ed will spin this disaster. Perhaps he’ll point out that I’ve omitted September 6th from this stunningly atrocious performance. On that night (Labor Day), MSNBC did in fact beat Fox by about 30k in demo. Of course, MSNBC ran a re-run of the billion year old documentary ‘Lockup’ instead of Ed. Probably the best decision MSNBC has made in quite some time.