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An Obama Landslide? Here Are the Expert Predictions That Point to a Decisive Obama Victory


"...a significant last-minute bump for Obama in the final days of the campaign."

​TheBlaze's Becket Adams contributed to this report.


It's no secret that numerous -- and notable -- pundits are predicting a Mitt Romney landslide in Tuesday's presidential election. But while many are claiming that the Republican candidate will secure a sweeping victory, others view the electoral scenario through a very different lens. In fact, some experts are projecting that President Barack Obama is actually the candidate poised for a massive win.

Below, find some of the most most prevalent predictions that Obama will sail to success at the polls on Tuesday:


Larry Sabato: Veteran Political Expert

Larry Sabato, known for his electoral predictions, believes Obama is poised for victory. According to his calculations, the president will capture 290 electoral votes, thus securing the White House for a second term. Business Insider has more about Sabato's campaign calculations:

The forecast shows a significant last-minute bump for Obama in the final days of the campaign — just last Thursday, Sabato had deemed the race too close to call. The bump, which Sabato attributes to Hurricane Sandy and Friday's not-disastrous jobs numbers, has given Obama an edge in several key battleground states, putting him on track to win 290 electoral college votes — well beyond the 270 he needs to win re-election, but still nowhere close to a landslide.

According to Sabato, four states — Iowa, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, and Colorado — have moved from "toss-up" to "leans Obama" over the past five days. Combined with Ohio, which Sabato has had in Obama's column since September, those states give the president a soft cushion in the electoral map. Even Romney manages to win Florida and Virginia (which Sabato has moved to "leans Republican"), he still comes up short with just 248 electoral votes.

The below table shows the final predictions, as outlined by Sabato:

Photo Credit:


Nate Silver: New York Times Blogger

New York Times blogger Nate Silver is so certain that Obama will win on Tuesday he's willing to bet $2,000 (literally) that he's correct in his assertions.

On Sunday, Silver explained the current national proportions, while also highlighting the breakdowns in key states. His conclusion? That the current projections very likely point to an Obama victory:

Based on the simulations that we ran on early Sunday evening, for example, Mr. Obama would have an 85 percent chance of winning the Electoral College if the popular vote were exactly tied nationally. This is where Mr. Obama’s Electoral College advantages, particularly in Nevada, Ohio and Wisconsin, would be of their maximum benefit. Given a tied national popular vote, we would expect Mr. Obama to underperform his polls slightly in these states — but since he leads by a minimum of about three points in the polling average in each one, he could underperform those numbers and still win them.

Mr. Obama would be almost certain to win the Electoral College if he won the popular vote by a percentage point or so. [...]

On Saturday, we wrote that state polls would have to be statistically biased against Mr. Romney for him to win the Electoral College. Now, it may be the case that the national polls would have to be biased against him as well.


Jim Cramer: Host of CNBC's "Mad Money"

The Washington Post invited several pundits, analysts, and political strategists to predict the outcome of tomorrow’s election in its Outlook’s “16th Crystal Ball contest.” Among those invited to participate in the contest was CNBC’s Jim Cramer who claims the “race is nowhere as close as the polls suggest.”

Like the New York Times’ Nate Silver, the “Mad Money” host believes tomorrow's election will be a landslide in the president’s favor. A 440 electoral vote blowout, to be exact.

The thing is, for President Obama to win with 440 electoral votes, he would not only have to outdo his 2008 performance (when he won with 365 electoral votes against a much, much milder opponent), but he would also have to win all of the Midwest along with a combination of heavily conservative western states and/or heavily conservative southern states. None of this seems very plausible.

Considering Cramer is the same guy who, during the crash of 2008, recommended buying stock in Bear Sterns and Lehman Bros., perhaps his 440 electoral vote prediction is more of the same (i.e. a wild and woefully misinformed stab in the dark).


Sam Wang: Princeton University

While Sam Wang may not be a household name, his predictions may cause Republicans some angst. Wang, who runs the Meta-Analysis model for Princeton Election Consortium, is also predicting an Obama win. Mother Jones explains the professor and neuroscientist's background:

Wang runs the Meta-Analysis model for the Princeton Election Consortium. Wang, who made a name for himself in neuroscience and biophysics, took the statistical analyses he'd applied in those fields and transposed them to the mess of electoral politics. He developed the model in 2004 initially to help predict the most strategic way to allocate of campaign donations. The model, based on a slew of state polls, calculates each candidate's probability of winning in the Electoral College if the election were held today.

Considering his accuracy in the 2004 and 2008 elections, Wang's prediction carries weight. Below, find his current (as of 10 a.m. on November 5) projection (Obama at 305 versus Romney at 233):

Screen shot from the Princeton Princeton Election Consortium


The American People

Okay, so the American public may not be "expert," but they are the deciding factors in the electoral schema.

While the polls have shown a nation divided when it comes to choosing between Romney and Obama, there's a major difference between the candidate one plans to vote for and the candidate one assumes will win. Despite being in a deadlock (the current Real Clear Politics national average is 47.8 percent for Obama and 47.4 percent for Romney), the American people -- at least according to Gallup -- believe Obama is poised for victory.

When asked "who do you think will win the election in November," 54 percent chose Obama and only 34 percent selected Romney. Overall, these proportions haven't moved much when compared to the stances that Gallup observed back in May and August.


Lanny Davis: Former Special Counsel to President Bill Clinton

Lawyer Lanny Davis joins the ranks of those who believe that victory is inevitable for Obama. Based on "evidence" and his "gut instinct," Davis wrote a Huffington Post article highlighting his beliefs on the matter. He got specific, too, noting his predictions in detail:

My best guess is the popular vote margin will be 50.5 percent to 49. The electoral vote margin will likely be 281 for Obama and 257 for Romney. I am picking battleground states for Obama to include Ohio, Iowa, Wisconsin, Nevada and New Hampshire. For Romney I am predicting he will win battleground states Virginia, North Carolina and Colorado.

Davis believes Obama's messages have resonated with voters and that Romney's have not. Additionally, he contends that the president is more likable and that Obama remains "the change candidate who excites and inspires" Americans.


YouGov: Market Research Firm

According to YouGov, Obama is well-poised to capture the Electoral College on Tuesday. While a pre-election poll conducted from October 31 through November 3 found that the president was up two points over Romney (48.5 percent versus 46.5 percent), state-wide analysis may be more troubling for the GOP candidate.

While it's not an impossibility for Romney to capture the 270 votes needed to win the election, the cards are currently stacked, at least according to this firm's analysis, in Obama's favor. YouGov explains:

YouGov also completed 27 state-level polls during this same time period. Based on these polls, President Obama is well-positioned to win in the Electoral College Tuesday. A Romney victory is not impossible, however: if the cards line up correctly for him, the former Massachusetts Governor could squeak by the threshold of 270 electoral votes and become the next President.

Photo Credit: YouGov


Remember, these are only predictions and opinions. Like those claiming Romney will win, these individuals and organizations are, based on their knowledge base and experience, seeking to definitively project the odds in a highly-unpredictable electoral season.

In the end, the voters will have the say and, regardless of polling numbers, the situation could end in either candidate's favor.



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