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Optimistic About 2014? Lower Your Expectations, Global Economic Group Says

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As Ukraine, Syria and Iraq continue to be rocked by conflict, European independence movements threaten to break up old countries and the U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to tighten monetary policy this week, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development released rejiggered global forecasts Monday.

The short version: The world's economies won't grow as much in 2014 as the OECD had initially predicted.

From the Wall Street Journal:

In a partial update to its twice-yearly forecasts for economic growth, the OECD cut its 2014 projections for each member of the Group of Seven largest developed economies. It said it now expects the U.S. economy to expand 2.1% this year, having forecast growth of 2.6% in May, while it expects the eurozone economy to expand by just 0.8%, having forecast growth of 1.2% in May.

It reserved its biggest recalibration for Italy, and now expects that nation's economy to contract by 0.4% in 2014, having estimated it would grow by 0.5% in May.

The OECD also cut its 2015 growth forecasts for five of the G-7, leaving its forecast for Canada unchanged and slightly raising its forecast for the U.K. It still expects economic growth to pick up in most countries next year, and to 3.1% in the U.S.

"The global recovery from the crisis has been inadequate in several ways," the OECD said. "Economic slack has persisted, potential growth has slowed, and inequality has risen. Meanwhile, external imbalances and threats to financial stability have remained."

Among large developing economies, the OECD left its growth forecasts for China unchanged, raised its forecasts for India and cut its forecasts for Brazil.

Follow Zach Noble (@thezachnoble) on Twitter

Front page image via Shutterstock

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