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Horowitz: Man who spooked the world with coronavirus model walks back his prediction

Conservative Review

Before we cause irreparable harm to our lives, liberty, and economy, shouldn’t we first study the nature of the virus, how many people really have it, when it started, and what really works in containing it? These are the questions some of us have already been asking, but our voices were silenced because of the Imperial College of London’s study that said this would kill 2.2 million people in the U.S. and 500,000 in the U.K. Now, the author of that study himself has essentially recanted his projection, whether he admits it or not.

Yesterday, Neil Ferguson of Imperial College London told the U.K.’s parliamentary select committee on science and technology that he is now “reasonably confident” there will not be an ICU shortage in London and that the fatalities will not exceed 20,000 in the U.K. He predicts that two-thirds of those would have died by the end of the year due to other conditions anyway. And rather than this lasting 18 months, as he projected in his first paper, which widely drove policies in the U.K. and U.S., Ferguson now predicts the virus will peak in “two or three weeks.”

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