In the hours leading up to the 2014 midterm election it is looking ever more likely that the United States Senate is going to be controlled by Republicans. This has been one of the most expensive midterm elections in history with candidates, political action committees, and other groups spending over four billion dollars in hopes of gaining votes.
Millennials are the most important voting block but are usually over looked during midterms because they don’t turn up in election swaying numbers as they do every four years for presidential elections, but this year is different. This is why I am very confident in predicting the control of the Senate to Republicans, for several very important reasons.
First, Republicans have finally stopped picking horrible candidates. Finally! Year after year I've seen Republicans nominate losers. Republicans either nominate losers or they nominate folksy, caricature type candidates who cannot hold their own in a debate or are not well versed in domestic and foreign issues to come up with a reason for how they would govern.
This year Republicans have picked smart, passionate, educated, and personable candidates (with the exception of former Senator Scott Brown) who have been able to handle their own in debates, town halls, and media appearance. They have been caught in very few gaffes and ignorant off-the-collar comments, which has landed them ahead in the polls.
Second, Republicans have taken control of the issues and talking points. Thanks to the actions of the Supreme Court and individual state courts, the issues of equal rights for same-sex couples have drifted from a top issue to one requiring less fervor. And with the usual “war on women” double-talk coming from democrats back firing Republicans have been free to capitalize of the important issues like Obamacare, the economy, national security, and the national debt. These are issues Republicans can cash in on at the voting booth giving them congressional control.
Third, 2014 is an election heavily based on the rejection of a failed presidency. Hope and change has been replaced by cynicism and lies, winning the future has been replaced by just getting by, and bipartisanship has been replaced with isolationism. Democrats do not want to admit that their golden child has become the class clown and that this election is a direct rejection of his incompetence. The President’s job approval has sunk to 41.8 percent and only 27.8 percent believe the country is on the right track in the latest Real Clear Politics average.
Finally, independent and republican millennials will play a very important roll in this election. Obama has destroyed the energy young liberal Americans had which got them to the polls making them far more likely to send a social media shout out than a vote. Furthermore, the president has caused independent millennials to abandon the party and politics of a president they thought they could trust in hopes Republicans will be able to lift them out of their plights. And Republican millennial are more energized than ever to get out the vote. In a recent Harvard poll 51 percent of definite millennial voters favor Congress to be held by Republicans.
This will be a very good election for Republicans and the next two years of work will determine if a Republican will occupy the oval office in 2016.
Republican have a sure shot at winning:
Alaska, Montana, Idaho, Wyoming, South Dakota, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Texas, Arkansas, Mississippi, Tennessee, Alabama, South Carolina, West Virginia, Maine, Louisiana, Kentucky (Although, if NH or Virginia were winnable I would definitely sacrifice the waste of space that is Senator McConnell).
This gives Republicans 51 seats, a very slim majority and thanks to Senator Harry Reid (D-Nevada) invoking the nuclear option, that is all that is needed.
There is Iowa, Kansas, New Hampshire, and North Carolina still in play.
In Iowa, Joni Ernst (R) has almost a two-point lead. This is a tight race but all polling evidence points to her sealing the win for Republicans. Kansas currently has an Independent candidate beating his Republican challenger by 0.7 points, Scott Brown (R) Is trailing his Democrat challenger by 3.4 points, and in North Carolina Tillis (R) trailing his opponent by 1.1 points.
I am confident Joni Ernst will win in Iowa, giving Republicans 52 seats. There is no way for Scott Brown to recover in New Hampshire giving the win to Democrats.
The races to watch Tuesday will be Kansas and North Carolina. These races are very tight and ones where millennial turnout could potentially sway in favor of Republicans. Factoring in the recent Harvard millennial polls and the mindset millennials are in in these two states Mitt Romney carried in 2012, Republicans could potentially carry both states. I am going to be optimistic and give both Kansas and North Carolina to Republicans. Many top pollsters have written off both and we’ll have to wait and see how millennials show up in these states.
The final total is Republicans 54, Democrats 46.
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