Poll Dancing: Election Locked Up One Day Out

Heading into the election, this post will be regularly updated with new significant pieces of polling data as they roll out.

A new Washington Post-ABC poll has President Obama at 50 percent support among likely voters with Mitt Romney at 47 percent. The margin of error is 2.5 percent.

POSTED NOVEMBER 5, 2012 AT 5:25 PM BY EDDIE SCARRY

A few final swing state poll numbers...

A new University of Cincinnati poll of undecided voters shows President Obama with 50 percent support and Mitt Romney with 48.5 percent.

A new Rasmussen poll of likely voters shows a slightly closer race with both Obama and Romney at 49 percent.

An NBC-Wall Street Journal-Marist poll of likely voters in Virginia released Sunday shows Obama 48 percent to Romney's 47 percent.

Public Policy Polling has new numbers today for Nevada and Colorado:

Nevada: Obama 51%, Romney 47%

Colorado: Obama 52%, Romney 46%

POSTED NOVEMBER 5, 2012 AT 2:15 PM BY EDDIE SCARRY

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From a new Wall Street Journal-NBC News-Marist poll:

In Ohio, Obama holds a six-point advantage over Romney among likely voters, 51 percent to 45 percent...

And in Florida, the president gets support from 49 percent of likely voters, while his GOP challenger gets 47 percent.

POSTED NOVEMBER 3, 2012 AT 6:00 PM BY EDDIE SCARRY

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In a New England College poll of voters in swing-state New Hampshire shows 49.5% said they would vote for President Obama, 44.4% said they would vote for Mitt Romney.

POSTED NOVEMBER 2, 2012 AT 1:40 PM BY EDDIE SCARRY

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Nevada: Obama 50%, Romney 46% [Las Vegas Review-Journal, 11/1]

Colorado: "50% of likely voters in Colorado support Obama, with 48% backing the former Massachusetts governor." [CNN-ORC, 11/1]

**A separate Rasmussen poll shows the numbers essentially reversed in Colorado with Romney holding 50% of support among likely voters and Obama with 47%.

POSTED NOVEMBER 1, 2012 AT 6:00 PM BY EDDIE SCARRY

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Polling of likely voters in a few swing states...

Iowa: Obama 50%, Romney 44%

Wisconsin: Obama 49%, Romney 46%

New Hampshire: Obama 49%, 47%

[Wall Street Journal-NBC-Marist]

POSTED NOVEMBER 1, 2012 AT 10:40 AM BY EDDIE SCARRY

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More likely voters say Mitt Romney would best achieve bipartisanship in Washington. A new Associated Press-GfK poll shows 47 percent of likely voters say Mitt Romney would be most effective in ending political stalemate on the federal level. Meanwhile 37 percent say President Obama would be most effective in this area.

POSTED OCTOBER 31, 2012 AT 6:00 PM BY EDDIE SCARRY

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Results from a new CBS-NYT-Quinnipiac poll of likely voters...

Ohio: 50% Obama, 45% Romney.

Virigina: 49% Obama, 47% Romney.

Florida: 48% Obama, 47% Romney.

Most Americans think President Obama will win the election: "A majority of Americans continue to believe that Democratic President Barack Obama will win re-election Tuesday over Republican challenger Mitt Romney, by 54% to 34%." [Gallup, 10/31]

POSTED OCTOBER 31, 2012 AT 9:00 AM BY EDDIE SCARRY

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An NPR poll of likely voters shows the race tied with Mitt Romney at 48% to President Obama's 47 percent.

Another national poll showing likely voters split down the middle between Obama and Romney, each candidate holding 47% support. [Pew, 10/29]

Both Romney and Obama have encouraged early voting, though Team Obama has been pushing it much harder. Even so, the numbers there are divided, too: 15% of Obama supporters have already voted compared to 17% of Romney supporters who say they have already cast their ballots. [Gallup, 10/29]

POSTED OCTOBER 30, 2012 AT 9:35 AM BY EDDIE SCARRY

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From a new WaPo-ABC News poll: "49 percent of likely voters back Republican Mitt Romney, and 48 percent support President Obama."

Minnesota: Obama leads among likely voters 47 percent to Romney's 44 percent. [Star Tribune]

Florida: Likely voters are almost evenly split with 50 percent supporting Romney, 49 percent backing Obama. [CNN-ORC]

Ohio: Likely voters are almost evenly split here, too, with 50 percent backing Romney and 48 percent supporting Obama. [Rasmussen]

POSTED OCTOBER 29, 2012 AT 2:40 PM BY EDDIE SCARRY

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Likely voters in Ohio are split even between President Obama (49%) and Mitt Romney (49%), according to an Enquirer/Ohio News Organization poll.

POSTED OCTOBER 29, 2012 AT 6:50 AM BY EDDIE SCARRY

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A few swing-state state polls...

Colorado: President Obama 51%, Mitt Romney 47% [PPP, 10/25] -- Registered voters

North Carolina: Obama 48%, Romney 48% [PPP, 10/25] -- Registered voters

Florida: Obama 48%, Romney 50% [Rasmussen, 10/26] -- Likely voters

Wisconsin: Obama 49%, Romney 49% [Rasmussen, 10/26] -- Likely voters

POSTED OCTOBER 26, 2012 AT 1:40 PM BY EDDIE SCARRY

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Findings in a new ABC News-Washington Post poll: "Mitt Romney has seized further advantage on economic issues at the core of the 2012 campaign, taking him to 50 percent support among likely voters vs. 47 percent for Barack Obama – Romney’s highest vote-preference result of the contest to date."

POSTED OCTOBER 26, 2012 AT 9:10 AM BY EDDIE SCARRY

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A new AP-GfK poll shows the gender gap between Mitt Romney and President Obama is gone. After months of Romney trailing behind, he is now tied with Obama 47-47 percent among women.

POSTED OCTOBER 25, 2012 AT 10:35 AM BY EDDIE SCARRY

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Rasmussen tracks a small lead for the GOP in New Hampshire: Romney 50%, Obama 48%

All tied-up in Ohio: Romney 48%, Obama 48%

WBUR poll: Elizabeth Warren leading Scott Brown by 5 in Massachusetts

Control of U.S. Senate may hinge on presidential race

POSTED OCTOBER 24, 2012 AT 1:58 PM BY MEREDITH JESSUP

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Gallup's poll of likely voters continues to show Mitt Romney leading President Obama. Today's latest numbers: Romney 51%, Obama 46%.

Swing state polls of likely voters from American Research Group...

Nevada: Obama 49, Romney 47.

New Hampshire: Romney 49, Obama 47.

POSTED OCTOBER 23, 2012 AT 2:30 PM BY EDDIE SCARRY

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President Obama has a narrow lead among likely voters, according to two new polls...

ABC News-Washington Post: Obama 49 percent, Romney 48 percent.

CBS News: Obama 48 percent, Romney 46 percent.

As for the debate...

CBS News (uncommitted voters): 53% say President Obama won tonight’s debate, 23% think Mitt Romney won. The remaining 24% say the debate was a tie.

CNN (“debate watchers”): 48% say Obama won, 40% say Romney won.

POSTED OCTOBER 23, 2012 AT 8:30 AM BY EDDIE SCARRY

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Rasmussen's latest swing-state numbers, among likely voters...

Colorado: Romney leads 50 percent to Obama's 46 percent.

Iowa: Romney and Obama are tied, 48-48 percent.

New national poll shows Romney leading by three [Monmouth University, 10/22]: " Currently, Gov. Romney leads the incumbent by 48% to 45% among likely American voters."

POSTED OCTOBER 22, 2012 AT 1:00 PM BY EDDIE SCARRY

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The numbers ahead of tonight's debate...

A Politico-George Washington University poll of likely voters, released today has Mitt Romney with a slight lead on President Obama, 49-47 percent.

A Wall Street Journal-NBC News poll, also of likely voters, released Sunday has Obama and Romney tied 47-47 percent.

Five-point gap in Ohio [Quinnipiac-CBS News 10/22]: "Mr. Obama has a 5-point advantage over his opponent among likely voters, with 50 percent to 45 percent for Mr. Romney."

POSTED OCTOBER 22, 2012 AT 6:40 AM BY EDDIE SCARRY

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President Obama leads Romney in Buckeye state [Fox News, 10/19]: Likely voters in Ohio continue to give Obama a slight advantage over Romney, 46-43 percent.

POSTED OCTOBER 19, 2012 AT 6:57 PM BY EDDIE SCARRY

Romney slips one with Gallup's likely voters [Gallup, 10/19]: Romney 51%, Obama 45%

President Obama keeps edge in swing states IA, WI [WSJ-NBC-Marist, 10/18]: "Mr. Obama leads his Republican rival 51% to 45% among likely voters in Wisconsin and 51% to 43% in Iowa..."

More LGBT Americans identify as Democrat [Gallup, 10/18]: Among lesgian, gay, bisexual and transgender Americans, "44% identify as Democratic, 43% as independent, and 13% as Republican."

POSTED OCTOBER 19, 2012 AT 12:47 PM BY EDDIE SCARRY

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“Tea party” widely seen as a negative label [Rasmussen, 10/18]: “44% regard Tea Party as a negative description for a candidate. Twenty-six percent (26%) consider it a positive and another 26% somewhere in between.”

Mitt Romney gains another point with likely voters[Gallup, 10/18]: Romney lead President Obama yesterday among likely voters 51-44 percent. The new numbers are out today and Romney is still leading 52-44.

Wisconsin split [Marquette University, 10/17]: Among likely voters in the swing state, Obama leads Romney 49 to 48 percent.

The horse race [RCP, 10/17]: An average of national poll shows Romney leading Obama 47.6 to 46.9 percent.

POSTED OCTOBER 18, 2012 AT 1:58 PM BY EDDIE SCARRY

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Boom: Gallup daily tracker shows Romney +6

The day after the second presidential debate finds GOP challenger Mitt Romney edging out President Obama in a national poll of likely voters 51-45. This is a slight increase up from yesterday’s pre-debate poll in in which Romney led 50-46.

Click here to see more of today’s polling info.

POSTED OCTOBER 17, 2012 AT 1:26 PM BY MEREDITH JESSUP

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Colorado gives debate win to Obama, with more positive view of Romney [PPP, 10/16]: “[Last night's presidential] debate enhanced both candidates’ images with Colorado voters. 40% now say they have a more positive opinion of Obama than they did before the debate, to 36% who see him less favorably. Mitt Romney actually does slightly better on that front with 44% of voters saying they see him more positively now to 35% with a less charitable opinion.”

Likely voters side with Romney [Gallup, 10/16]: “Half of likely voters now prefer Mitt Romney for president and 46% back President Barack Obama…”

Young voters side with Obama [Harvard IOP, 10/17]: Voters aged 18-29 years old choose Obama over Romney “on health care (+23), foreign policy (+23), to be the Commander-in-Chief of the military (+22), immigration reform (+20) – and the economy (+19 percentage points).”

In case you missed it:

–CNN’s immediate poll of rregistered voters:  46 percent say Obama won last night’s debate, while 39 percent say Romney won.

–CBS News’s immediate poll of uncommitted voters: 37 percent say Obama won, 30 percent say Romney won.

The horse race [RCP average, 10/17]: An average of national polls shows Romney leading Obama 47.4 to 47.1 percent.

POSTED OCTOBER 17, 2012 AT 12:37 PM BY EDDIE SCARRY