Marquette University Law School released its latest poll on the GOP primary for Wisconsin's US Senate race on Wednesday, and the poll was good news for candidate Leah Vukmir (R-Wis.); however, it is clear that the race is still up for grabs with less than a month to go before voters head to the polls.
What are the numbers?
While within the 7 percent margin of error with 30 percent of voters undecided, Vukmir took the lead over opponent Kevin Nicholson (R) who has shown an advantage in prior surveys. The two will face off on August 14 to determine which will move on to the general election to take on incumbent Sen. Tammy Baldwin (R - Wis.).
Nicholson held a lead over Vukmir in the June polls with 37 percent saying they would vote for him compared to 32 percent for Vukmir. But the July numbers show Vukmir now at 34, with Nicholson dropping to 32.
Poll director Charles Franklin told the Milwaukee Business Journal on Wednesday that the change is not statistically significant, saying, "you can see if it's just a 2 percent race and 30 percent undecided, there is a whole lot of room for that race to shift."
Nonetheless, Vukmir's campaign is feeling the momentum.
Vukmir's had a good week. Marquette's polling results arrived on the heels of her endorsement from the NRA the day prior, adding to a long list of coveted backers including the Wisconsin Republican Party and Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.).
Responding to the Marquette results, Nicholson spokeswoman Ronica Cleary told the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, "We've known for months that this race would be tight. Establishment and Washington insiders are circling the wagons for Leah Vukmir and it's not surprising that the ballot is close."
But Leah Vukmir says the effort to paint her as an insider isn't holding water with Wisconsin voters, telling TheBlaze, "Wisconsin Republicans are not establishment Republicans. We're activist Republicans. So calling me an insider is not only an attack on me, it's an attack on Gov. (Scott) Walker, my colleagues, and the grassroots who stuck with us through a hard-fought battle with the unions in our state — which is why I had so much support at the convention."
She added, "That approach might work in another state, but it's not sticking in Wisconsin — voters here are careful and methodical."