Frank Luntz bursts CNN's bubble over Colorado's disqualification of Trump from the ballot

The mood was electric at CNN Tuesday night after the Colorado Supreme Court ruled that the 81-year-old Democratic president's top rival was disqualified from the state's ballot. Republican pollster and Trump critic Frank Luntz quickly sapped the energy, telling CNN correspondent Pamela Brown that the Democrat-appointed justices' ruling will only improve former President Donald Trump's chances in the 2024 election.

Luntz said the impact of the disqualification will be "exactly what the indictments did. It's going to be exactly what the criticisms have done."

"Donald Trump thrives on negativity," continued the pollster. "He thrives on legal systems that try to hold him accountable, and I'm convinced that his polling numbers are going to go up."

When indicted on 37 counts in June in connection to the Biden Department of Justice's probe into whether he mishandled classified documents, Trump saw a boost in the polls. After weeks spent trailing Biden, Trump started leading the geriatric president by six points in both a Harvard-Harris poll and a Rasmussen Reports poll.

According to a CBS News/YouGov poll conducted June 9-10, 61% of likely Republican primary voters said they were unaffected by the indictment, while 14% indicated their view of Trump had actually improved due to the charges.

76% of respondents said the politically motivated nature of the indictments concerned them more than whether the documents were a a national security risk, which only 12% of respondents alternatively signaled most concerned them.

When Trump was indicted again in August on four felony counts concerning his alleged efforts to remain in power following the 2020 election, another CBS News/YouGov poll found that a majority of Republicans and 77% of self-identified MAGA Republicans felt the indictments and investigations against Trump constituted attacks on people like them; 86% of Republicans figured the indictments were a means to knock Trump off as a political candidate.

Luntz, cognizant of the tendency of Trump's political persecution to galvanize Republicans, told an ostensibly devastated Brown, "Just today, the New York Times published six key swing states had had Donald Trump up beyond the margin of error in five out of the six. The polling earlier, a month ago, was significant. Trump is gaining. The more that he is prosecuted, the more that he is condemned, the higher his numbers go as people rally around him."

The Dec. 19 New York Times/Siena Poll referenced by Luntz shows that 46% of people surveyed between Dec. 10 and 14 indicated they would vote for Trump if the election were held today; 44% said they'd vote to re-elect President Joe Biden.

The poll further indicated that 62% of Republicans think that if Trump secures the party nomination, he should remain the GOP nominee even if convicted of a federal crime.

"I would say to the judges as I said to the Justice Department, 'You're actually making it more likely that Donald Trump is elected next November by how you are pursuing this,'" said Luntz. "'You don't explain the decisions, you don't put things in context, and so Trump climbs and climbs and climbs.'"

The pollster stressed that Trump is now "beating Joe Biden clearly nationwide."

Prior to Trump's removal from the ballot in Colorado, he was leading Biden in a Dec. 8-12 CNBC poll by six points and in a Dec. 15-17 Morning Consult poll by two points. Morning Consult indicated in a Tuesday update that the Republican candidate maintains his lead and has enjoyed a boost among independents and Trump 2020 voters.

Brown asked whether the Democrat-appointed Colorado justices' reasoning mattered to prospective Trump voters or whether this "is more about, once again, Trump is the victim of the deep state kind of thinking."

"It actually proves Trump's point. It proves that the people in charge, the people in power, are trying to take him down," said Luntz, who has been highly critical of the former president since well before his inauguration.

Luntz stressed that the backlash does not have to be universal for it to be beneficial to Trump. Cementing the loyalty of just a small contingent who might otherwise support Biden or stay home on Election Day may be all it takes to ensure a Republican victory in November.

"You're not trying to reach all the Trump voters. You're simply trying to reach three or four percent of them that will make a difference in this election. Now make no mistake. There is very few undecided voters right now. There're very few people going back and forth between Trump and Biden," said the pollster. "It's more about those people that are trying to decide whether or not to vote."

According to Luntz, another consequence of the ruling will be that Nikki Haley, who has enjoyed some success in the polls in recent weeks, will be all but forgotten amidst the uproar.

"[Trump] is the best victim politician I have ever seen in my 35 years in doing this," stressed Luntz. "This is exactly what he would have wanted in the run-up to the Iowa caucus."

The pollster concluded by noting that Trump's popularity in Latino-heavy Nevada alone "ought to send you a big signal about what's happening in America today."

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