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Horowitz: Did Democrats suppress their own voters with COVID fearmongering?


Current numbers show some trends

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The left has remade our society, economy, and interpersonal relationships through irrational fear of a virus and illogical worship of social isolation as a panacea. Well, what if they did such a good job convincing people that they will die if they go out and stand on line to vote that they have suppressed their own voters? Remember, it's mainly liberals who believe in the cult of COVID lockdowns. Well, evidence from early voting data throughout the country hints at such a remarkable electoral phenomenon unfolding.

The story is the same in many critical areas. While we don't know the ballot choices of those who voted early, we do know the party registration breakdown in most states. And in nearly every critical state, Republicans are doing much better than they did in 2016 in terms of in-person early voting. Given that Trump won in 2016 and the electorate will only get more favorable for Republicans on Election Day itself (because the majority of Democrats vote early), this portends an outcome way out of sync with the majority of polls.

Nowhere is this more evident than in Florida. Republicans are downright winning in-person early voting in terms of turnout by voter registration in Miami-Dade County, one of the state's most liberal jurisdictions. Yes, Democrats did bank a lot of mail-in votes, but because Republicans are doing so well with in-person early voting, they are ahead of their 2016 benchmarks in nearly every critical county — and remember, Trump carried Florida in 2016. Democrats are now faced with the prospect of trying to make a last-minute effort for people to vote in person in south Florida because the mail-in ballots came up short.

But it turns out that the mail-in campaign is the problem for Democrats. The large number of mail-in votes is unlikely bringing in new voters. Democrats are cannibalizing their in-person vote through record numbers of mail-ins. Sure, many of them answered the call to fill out their ballots through the mail, but they are clearly not enjoying a 1-1 ratio with their typical in-person voting. One would expect — with record mail-in ballots from Democrats — they'd be crushing Republicans, at least in terms of turnout by voter registration, headed into Election Day voting. However, despite all that cannibalization of their base in-person voting, they are actually behind their 2016 numbers! They fired all the bullets in their gun and are poised to lose.

The Democratic governor in Wisconsin sounded the alarm about the failure of mail-in ballots to turn out all their voters they need just to stay on par with 2016. At a press conference on Friday, Gov. Tony Evers warned Democrats to vote in person, not by mail. They are discovering the obvious fact that if even 10%-20% of their traditional base throw out their paper mail, which is very common in this day and age, they will lose their baseline votes unless they turn them out on Election Day.

There's just one problem: It's too late. By definition, most of the people in this country who have refused to leave their homes for seven months are Democrat voters. Democrats have done such a good job at convincing people they will die from the virus that they have fearmongered themselves into electoral oblivion.

As of Sunday, the composition of the ballots cast so far in the Badger State was 43% Republican and 35% Democrat. An R+8 advantage in early voting is simply astounding, given that, according to exit polls, Democrats had a +1 advantage overall in 2016. It's possible that Republicans are also cannibalizing more of their Election Day vote than usual as early voting becomes more universal, but it's very unlikely that the electorate would suddenly become more Democratic on Election Day itself. No wonder the Wisconsin governor is sounding the alarm.

In North Carolina, Democrats are going into Election Day with a 17% smaller registration edge among votes already cast than they did in 2016, despite the massive mail-in ballot campaign. And remember, Trump still carried the state in 2016 by nearly four points.

A similar dynamic is playing out in Michigan, where Republicans lead Democrats 41%-39% in early voting turnout. Overall, Democrats enjoyed a nine-point edge in turnout in 2016, when Trump carried the state by the slimmest of margins. What's more, Republican turnout is nearly tied with Democrats in the critical Detroit suburb of Oakland County, a county Trump lost last time by eight points.

The problem with so many of the polls is that they were predicated on Democrats doing much better in early voting. Take the most recent Fox News Wisconsin poll, for example, which had Biden up by five points. The poll showed a massive edge for Democrats when mail-in and early voting is combined.

However, we know that is this already not true because Republicans have an eight-point edge in combined early voting turnout. It's true that not all mail-in ballots have been returned as of Sunday, but Fox's turnout projection model is nowhere near the reality of the current early voting/mail-in ballot count.

In Pennsylvania, there is no in-person early voting — only mail-in voting — so naturally, Democrats have a strong edge in turnout of returned ballots so far. But again, just like we are seeing in the other states, those mail-in ballots are likely not enough to overcome the drop-off in their in-person voting. On Saturday, the Washington Post reported that Pennsylvania Democrats are worried about "potential trouble with mail-in ballots during a pandemic" and "signs of lower-than-anticipated turnout among the Democratic base."

In past years, Democrats would carefully monitor those who failed show up in early voting or declined to mail in a ballot and offered to take them to the polls on Election Day. Well, good luck doing that this year with all their voters who were convinced that stepping out in public is a death sentence.

Obviously, we will all find out Tuesday night whether these numbers really portend a Trump victory. But if he winds up winning, it will likely be because the very people who locked down our lives and liberty successfully locked down their own vote.

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