Here Are the 4 Surprise Signs That Obama Could Still Win the 2012 Election

Gallup's shocking poll numbers have the nation abuzz about 2012 presidential prospects. As TheBlaze reported on Thursday, the firm found that 52 percent of likely voters are currently supporting Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney, with only 45 percent pledging allegiance to President Barack Obama.

While the results are captivating, there's still surprising evidence that Obama has an upper-hand in the grander political schema. In four key areas, the president's re-election campaign appears to be in a favorable position -- one that Republicans should probably be nervous about: the current standing of the electoral map, early voting results in Ohio, Obama's claim to be winning the ground game and overall campaign fundraising.

U.S. President Barack Obama (R) and Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney share a laugh at the 67th Annual Alfred E. Smith Memorial Foundation Dinner at the Waldorf-Astoria Hotel on October 18, 2012 in New York City. The lighthearted white-tie charity gala has long been a tradition of the presidential race. Credit: Getty Images

Of course, it's still too early to judge whether these areas will determine a win or loss for either candidate and, with weeks remaining, anything is possible. But the aforestated indicators and claims coming from Obama's team are worth paying attention to.

Here are the four developments that should give right-of-center Americans some anxiety:

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The Electoral Map Is More Favorable to Obama (At the Moment)

According to Business Insider's approach to assessing the 2012 campaign -- national polls aren't necessarily key to projecting a presidential winner. On Thursday, the outlet produced a video examination of electoral college votes and the states that each candidate needs to secure in order to be victorious on November 6.

Far from conceding that the battle for the White House is "over," Business Insider made the point that the battle for 270 electoral college votes is tight -- but that the current scenario still favors Obama. While the majority of states are already solidly locked down for each candidate, there are at least eight states that are up for grabs; in sum, they comprise 95 electoral college votes.

Photo Credit: Business Insider

"The president has 237 electoral votes when battleground are taken out of play," Business Insider notes. "Giving him several paths to electoral college victory. For Obama, the key state to swing is Ohio...if Obama can hold on to Ohio, he'll need just 15 more votes to put him over the threshold."

However, even without Ohio, there are options for the president to secure a victory. It seems, at least at the current juncture, there are more paths to re-election for Obama than there are for potential Romney's victory. The Republican candidate, though, does have some potential avenues to victory.

"Romney's map is dependent upon winning Florida," the video proclaims. "Without the sunshine state Romney would have to sweep all of the other battlegrounds, including Ohio, Virginia and Wisconsin -- a long shot, despite the Republican's recent gains."

Watch Business Insider's full video explanation, below, for more on these fascinating projections:

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Oh, Ohio: Obama Campaign Reports Being Majorly Ahead Among Early Voters

Remember the aforementioned note about Ohio's importance? Call it a misleading electoral strategic move or take it as gospel, but the Obama campaign circulated a memorandum this morning, claiming to be ahead in the state among early voters. The note reads:

“Today we are ahead of where we were at this time against John McCain – and ahead of Mitt Romney. Republicans are similarly talking up their ground game and early vote numbers, but their assertions rest on much shakier ground.”

Current Real Clear Politics (RCP) averages show Obama to be up by just over two percentage points in Ohio. While, according to The Hill, Republicans have claimed to be closing in on the president's lead, this latest memo could cause anxiety among conservatives. The state race is paramount for Romney, seeing as no Republican presidential candidate in American history has lost Ohio and won the presidency. Here are the currently RCP averages:

Photo Credit: Real Clear Politics

While the Obama campaign remains enthusiastic about the purported lead among early voters, polls in the state have tightened of late, leading to the mere 2.4 point spread observed in the above chart. Early voting began October 2 and, so far, 1.4 million residents have either voted or requested a ballot.

The memo cites four separate polls that apparently show the president with leads ranging from 19 to 52 points among early voters. But Reuters, just two days ago, did issue a report that may temper the memo a bit:

According to a Reuters/Ipsos national survey, about 10 percent of likely voters have already cast ballots. And of those who have voted, Obama holds a sizable lead over Romney - 56 percent to 35 percent. The poll has a credibility interval, a measure of accuracy, of plus or minus about five percentage points.

That contrasts with a much closer race according to polls of likely voters. There, the president holds just a slight edge of 46 percent to 43 percent in Tuesday's Reuters/Ipsos daily tracking poll.

We'll have to wait and see how the state shapes up.

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Obama Campaign Claims to Be Winning on the Ground

Polls illustrate only a portion of the story. What happens on the ground in politics is also telling. And with weeks remaining in the election cycle, every second counts. From registering voters to educating the electorate about what's to come, both campaigns have both opportunities -- and plenty of room for error -- along the way.

While the race is far from over and groundwork is only a piece of the overall battle, in a POLITICO report last week, Obama campaign field director Jeremy Bird said that grassroots outreach is more-than-healthy. In fact, he claims that the numbers and the outreach are better than they were in 2008, a potentially-troubling sign, if true, for the Romney camp. POLITICO has more:

On a conference call Thursday just hours before the vice presidential debate between Joe Biden and Paul Ryan, campaign manager Jim Messina and field director Jeremy Bird said that the campaign's grassroots operation was unmatched — no matter what the polls are saying.

"We gauge our ground game on verifiable numbers that tell the real story: voter registration and early voting," Messina told reporters. "In nearly every battleground state, margins on both counts are bigger than they were in 2008. We've registered more voters than '08, we've knocked on more doors and we've talked to more people."

Bird said that the Obama campaign had made huge strides in both registration and early voting in key states — and were way past the benchmarks they set in 2008.

President Barack Obama waves following a speech at a campaign event at the University of Miami, Thursday, Oct. 11, 2012 in Coral Gables, Fla. Credit: AP

Of course, one could dismiss these notions as mechanisms for compensating for poor polling (and debate) performance following the first presidential face-off (these comments were made before the second debate). Still, the level of confidence present within the POLITICO article is concerning, especially as these effort ramp up in the final days of a highly-contentious and tight race.

Plus, The Daily Beast notes the differences in the number of volunteer offices present in some battleground states -- another potential indicator that Obama's policies and message are being hammered home more diligently in more contentious localities:

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Romney Lost the Fundraising Battle With Obama in August and September