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New poll shows how a Liz Cheney presidential run would 'single-handedly swing the election to Trump'

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Drew Angerer/Getty Images

Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.) confirmed last week that she is considering running for president in 2024.

But a new poll shows that if Cheney runs as an independent, her campaign would backfire and help former President Donald Trump if he is the Republican nominee against President Joe Biden.

What did Cheney say?

The day after her landslide primary loss to Republican Harriet Hageman, Cheney appeared on NBC's "Today" show and addressed rumors that she is eyeing the White House.

"That’s a decision that I’m going to make in the coming months. I’m not going to make any announcements here this morning," Cheney said.

"But it is something that I am thinking about, and I’ll make a decision in the coming months," she confirmed.

What does the poll show?

A new Yahoo News/YouGov poll released this week shows that if Cheney runs for president in 2024 as an independent — since she is making no friends in a Republican Party that continues to prop up Trump — she will help Trump win.

In fact, Yahoo News said Cheney would "single-handedly swing the election to Trump."

Specifically, the poll discovered that in a hypothetical matchup between Biden and Trump, Biden would win by three points, 42% to 39%; 20% of respondents said they are not sure who they would support.

But when Cheney is thrown into the race as an independent spoiler, Biden's re-election chances sink completely — and Trump is propelled to victory.

With Cheney in the race, Trump would win by eight points over Biden, 37% to 29%, while Cheney would secure 11% of support. Nearly one-quarter of respondents (23%), however, said they are unsure of who they would support in such a scenario.

The result makes sense because in theory, Cheney would siphon moderate voters who lean Republican from Biden but only support Biden because they refuse to vote for Trump. Thus supporting Cheney, who is an otherwise stalwart Republican, would be a conscience-acceptable vote for such Americans.

The Yahoo News/YouGov poll results confirm this thesis.

According to Yahoo News, "a full 69% of Cheney’s support among registered voters comes from those who would otherwise support Biden on a two-way ballot. Just 15% comes from Trump supporters."

Respondents were surveyed Aug. 18-22 after Cheney's primary election defeat.

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