'Wrong by a million': Biden administration wildly misstates job growth

President Joe Biden's Department of Labor estimated that nearly 1,047,000 jobs were added in the second quarter of 2022.

Biden referenced this figure on more than one occasion as evidence of his administration's successful leadership.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia issued an assessment last week showing that job growth in Q2 2022 was closer to approximately 1% of that figure, revealing that Biden, despite promising not to engage in such conduct, may have been promoting "malarkey" ahead of the midterm elections.

What are the details?

The Philadelphia Fed stated in a Dec. 13 report that "employment changes from March through June 2022 were significantly different in 33 states and the District of Columbia compared with current state estimates from the Bureau Labor of Statistics' (BLS) Current Employment Statistics (CES)."

The BLS is a unit of the Biden administration's Department of Labor.

Contrary to the BLS' suggestion, the Philadelphia Fed's assessment "indicated higher changes in four states, lower changes in 29 states and the District of Columbia, and lesser changes in the remaining 17 states."

Drawing on "more comprehensive, accurate job estimates released by the BLS as part of its Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) program," the Philadelphia Fed determined that "10,500 net new jobs were added during the period rather than the 1,121,500 jobs estimated by the sum of the states; the U.S. CES estimated net growth of 1,047,000 jobs for the period."

That's a growth overestimation by nearly 11,000%, or around 1,036,500 jobs.

"Payroll jobs in the nation remained essentially flag from March through June 2022 after adjusting for QCEW data," the report added.

Paul Flora, manager of regional economic analysis at the Philadelphia Reserve, noted that "large revisions occur primarily because the preliminary state estimates are based on a small sample of firms, while subsequent benchmark revisions incorporate other BLS data based on a full count from nearly all firms. Moreover, the BLS issues its benchmark revisions for state employment estimates just once a year."

While preliminary BLS assessments are highly fallible, Biden nevertheless cited his department's estimate with confidence.

The Biden White House issued a statement on July 28, claiming, "Our job market remains historically strong, with unemployment at 3.6% and more than 1 million jobs created in the second quarter alone."

At the time of the White House's July announcement, the Hill reported that the purpose of Biden hyping what now turns out to have been the illusion of a strong job market was to "argue the U.S. is not in a recession."

The Washington Times highlighted how Biden's erroneous boast took place "in the heat of the midterm election campaign."

Earlier that month, Biden boasted, "In the second quarter of this year, we created more jobs than in any quarter under any of my predecessors in the nearly 40 years before the pandemic."

Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) took issue with the Biden administration's misleading estimate, tweeting, "Wrong by a million jobs. This is outrageous."

Scott noted that the Biden administration "has been lying to the American people about our economy to prop up his failed agenda."

Rep. Lee Zeldin (R- N.Y.) said, "This would be the top news story in America if the administration of a Republican President cooked books like this on a jobs report in the home stretch of a midterm election."

In response to the Philadelphia Fed's revelatory report, Turning Point USA founder Charlie Kirk posed the question, "Should we just assume everything they tell us before an election is a lie?"

ZeroHedge, which reported on an apparent inconsistency with the Labor Department's numbers back in July, posed another question: "How long until Republicans - who take control of the House in January - start hearings to demonstrate to the US that the collapse in the labor market did not start with the Republican takeover but was well in place last summer[?]"