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IN-Sen: New poll shows incumbent Dem. Joe Donnelly leading Republican Mike Braun by just 2 points

A new poll shows Democratic incumbent Joe Donnelly (left) leading Republican candidate Mike Braun (right, with President Donald Trump). (Mark Wilson/Getty Images, Scott Olson/Getty Images)

A new Fox News Poll shows incumbent Indiana Democratic Sen. Joe Donnelly with a slight lead over Republican businessman and former Indiana state Rep. Mike Braun in their U.S. Senate race.

What are the details?

The poll revealed that 43 percent of likely voters plan to vote for Donnelly in the November general election, and 41 percent plan to back Braun.

Seventy-seven percent of Braun's supporters say they are certain in their vote for him, while 74 percent of Donnelly supporters said the same.

Libertarian Lucy Brenton polled at 6 percent, and 8 percent of respondents say they are undecided.

What about the Kavanaugh debate?

SCOTUS nominee Brett Kavanaugh is also at the center of the debate, and the poll noted that should Donnelly vote against Kavanaugh, 30 percent of voters said they would be more likely to vote for Donnelly.

Thirty-two percent of voters said they would be less likely to vote for Donnelly in such a case, and 34 percent of voters said Donnelly's vote on Kavanaugh would make no difference.

After September's Senate Judiciary Committee hearings, Donnelly announced that he would not vote to confirm Kavanaugh. Donnelly has yet to publicly announce whether he'll change his mind in light of the FBI investigation into sexual assault allegations against Kavanaugh, but it seems doubtful.

On Tuesday, the Washington Post's Seung Min Kim — a White House reporter — tweeted that Donnelly has yet to flip-flop on his initial "no."

She wrote, "I’ve been asking whether @SenDonnelly could change his opposition to Kavanaugh since it hinged much on lack of FBI probe and now there is one. Here’s what a senior aide tells me this morning."

The aide responded, "Joe also has serious concerns about Judge Kavanaugh's temperament and impartiality. He's ready to work with President Trump on a new nominee, but he remains opposed to this one."

According to the survey, 52 percent of respondents approve of the job President Donald Trump is doing as opposed to 46 percent who disapprove.

The poll has a margin of error of 3.5 percentage points, and was conducted online Sept. 29-Oct. 2 among 806 registered Indiana voters.

You can read the poll's full results here.

What else?

A previous Ipsos Public Affairs poll showed Donnelly and Braun locked in a dead heat.

In a previous NBC News/Marist poll, Donnelly led Braun by about 6 points.

Trump officially endorsed Braun in September during a campaign rally in Evansville, Indiana.

The Senate election in Indiana is one of 10 “most likely to flip in 2018,” CNN reported in January. The Cook Political Report calls the race a toss-up, as does Real Clear Politics.

Donnelly and Braun will face off in their first debate on Monday. The second debate is set for Oct. 30.

One last thing…
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