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Red wave incoming? GOP slated for 'very good' election outcome as crime vastly outweighs abortion for voters

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KRISTON JAE BETHEL/AFP via Getty Images

The abortion hangover in a post-Roe v. Wade world is over.

According to CNN polling guru Harry Enten, all signs are suggesting that Republicans will have a "very good night" on Election Day next month.

What are the details?

Focusing on the issues of crime and abortion, Enten explained on "New Day" this week that voter interest in abortion spiked in May when it became clear that the Supreme Court would overturn Roe. Conversely, interest in crime sank.

But that trend has completely reversed itself just weeks before voters cast their ballots in the 2022 midterm elections.

"Around the time that Roe v. Wade was overturned in June, crime was just at 30% of all the searches between crime and abortion; abortion was at 70%. In May, again, abortion higher than crime. In July, it was basically tied, abortion slightly higher than crime. But look now in September: crime 71% to just 29% for abortion," Enten explained.

"That is basically back to the pre-Roe v. Wade overturning sort of baseline where we were back in April, where crime was making up 74% of the searches versus abortion at just 26%," he noted.

This is important because polls, like the new Monmouth University poll, show that crime is the second-most important issue to voters behind inflation.

And who do voters trust on the issue of crime? Republicans — overwhelmingly.

"Crime is basically the economy for Republicans," Enten said. "Democrats do not want to be in this ballpark. They want to talking about abortion, which is the main focus of most of their ads. So, the more voters care about crime, the worse it is for Democrats."

What will happen in November?

A recent Gallup poll that showed voters trust Republicans over Democrats to handle their most important issue by an 11-point margin. That difference, Enten said, is huge — and often precedes a red wave.

"Obviously, we're not sure what's going to happen this year, but in all other years or anywhere close to this [margin] — 46 Republican House seats won, 247, 230, 242 — and, of course, you just need 218 for a majority," Enten explained of previous elections.

"So, if this election looks anything like this and voters react in the way that they normally do, then Republicans are going to have a very good night come election night," he said.

Right on cue, NBC News reported Thursday that crime is making a difference in tight Senate races where Republicans stand to benefit.

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