Here's what exit polls reveal about Tuesday's electoral bloodbath

The crushing defeats experienced on Tuesday by Republican candidates in the Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial races as well as in the mayoral race in New York City are sure to be locally consequential as well as nationally telling.

After all, these elections provide insights into voter sentiment ahead of the 2026 midterm elections, in which Democrats will likely be able to flip five House seats, owing to the successful passage of the gerrymandering measure in California championed by Gov. Gavin Newsom (D), Proposition 50.

It turns out that hostility toward President Donald Trump continues to animate a significant number of voters and that younger Americans, particularly young women, are receptive to radical candidates.

New York City

Socialist Zohran Mamdani took over 50% of the vote in the New York City mayoral race, beating Republican candidate Curtis Sliwa by 43.3 percentage points and disgraced former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo by nearly nine points.

It's clear from CNN's exit polls that Mamdani's pinko populism resonated with a great many voters, particularly younger voters, in a city where the cost of living is widely regarded as a bigger issue than the correlated strain of illegal immigration and the problem of crime.

Mamdani campaigned on freezing the rent for all stabilized tenants; building more affordable housing; raising taxes on millionaires and corporations; raising the minimum wage; "expanding and protecting gender-affirming care citywide"; and frustrating the efforts of the Trump administration to enforce federal immigration law.

The majority of voters who said that the most important issues facing NYC were immigration and crime indicated that they voted for Cuomo. Meanwhile, 66% of the clear majority of voters who said the cost of living was the number-one issue ended up supporting Mamdani.

Mamdani also secured the support of:

• 65% of voters who disapprove of Trump as well as 8% who approve of him;
• 33% of voters who expressed an unfavorable view of the Democratic Party and 65% of those with a favorable view;
• 46% of white voters and 54% of non-white voters;
• 69% of voters ages 44 and younger, including 84% of women under 30;
• 75% of the irreligious vote, 33% of the Jewish vote, 33% of the Catholic vote, and 42% of votes by those identifying as Protestant or other types of Christian;
• 82% of the non-straight vote;
• 82% of the votes cast by people who have been in New York City for 10 years or less; and
• 65% of first-time mayoral voters.

President Donald Trump was a factor in the majority of respondents' votes in the Virginia, New Jersey, and California, according to CBS News' exit polls. In the New York City mayoral race, however, only 40% of respondents said Trump was a factor when deciding for whom to vote.

RELATED: Democrat who sent death-wish texts wins top law enforcement office in Virginia

Photo (left): Alex Wong/Getty Images; Photo (right): Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images

While Trump was not a factor across the board in the NYC mayoral election, 76% of the people who said he was ultimately cast ballots for Mamdani.

New Jersey

In the New Jersey gubernatorial election, Democrat Rep. Mikie Sherrill beat Republican candidate Jack Ciattarelli 56.2% to 43.2%, dealing him a more crushing defeat than he experienced in the 2021 gubernatorial election when he lost to Gov. Phil Murphy (D) by just over three points.

Exit polls show that Sherrill performed particularly well with women, non-whites, and college graduates and benefited greatly from voters' hostility toward the president and his administration.

The New Jersey Democrat apparently secured the support of:

• 77% of non-white voters and 47% of white voters;
• 67% of voters ages 44 and under and 51% of voters 45 or older;
• 94% of liberal voters, 62% of moderates, and 11% of alleged conservatives;
• 62% of female voters and 81% of female voters under 30; and
• 62% of voters with a college degree.

Voters who felt that the state's economy was faring poorly under Democrat management were more likely to cast ballots for Ciattarelli. Seventy-seven percent of voters who figured things were good voted for Sherrill.

It's clear that voter sentiment about federal politics leached into New Jersey's gubernatorial election.

'An antipathy for Trump also appeared to be a factor for a majority — 51% — of California voters.'

Whereas those who expressed satisfaction with the way things were going nationally — 88% — voted for Ciattarelli, 77% of those who were dissatisfied voted Democrat.

Of the 40% of voters who said that opposing Trump was a factor, 97% voted for Sherrill. The Democrat also secured 93% of the majority — 55% — who signaled disapproval for the president.

The majority of voters — 53% — indicated that the Trump administration has gone too far with its immigration crackdown, and 49% suggested the next governor should not cooperate with the administration.

Virginia

In the Virginia gubernatorial election, Democrat Abigail Spanberger beat Winsome Earle-Sears, the state's Republican lieutenant governor, 57.5% to 42.3%.

Like Mamdani, Spanberger enjoyed a great deal of support from the youth and appeared to benefit not only from voters' antipathy toward the Trump administration but from their financial desperation.

CNN exit polls show that Spanberger secured the support of:

• 65% of the female vote, including 81% of women under 30;
• 92% of the black vote, 67% of the Hispanic vote, 79% of the Asian vote, and 47% of the white vote;
• 63% of voters with a college degree;
• 56% of voters who earn $50,000 or more and 62% of voters who make less; and
• 82% of non-white voters and 47% of white voters.

A majority of voters indicated that federal cuts impacted their finances, and 69% of those affected said they cast ballots for Spanberger.

In a reverse of the trend in New Jersey, those respondents who said Virginia's economy was faring well majoritively voted Republican, while most of the 39% of voters who said the economy was not doing well or doing poorly ended up supporting Spanberger.

When asked what the most important issue facing the state was, a plurality — 48% — cited the economy. Of that cohort, 63% voted Democrat.

As was the case in the other races, those angry or dissatisfied with the way things were going nationally tended to vote Democrat 80% of the time.

Of the 38% of voters who signaled that opposition to Trump was a factor in their electoral decision-making, 99% voted for Spanberger, and 58% of all respondents signaled disapproval of his presidency.

It appears that disapproval of the Democratic Party was no guarantee of a vote against Spanberger, as roughly one in five of those who hold an unfavorable view of the Democratic Party voted for her.

California

Antipathy for Trump also appeared to be a factor for a majority — 51% — of California voters, 98% of whom voted in favor of the gerrymandering measure, Proposition 50.

According to CNN's exit polls, 64% of California voters disapprove of the job Trump is doing. Only 9% of the voters in that camp voted against Prop 50. Sixty-three percent of voters said the Trump administration's immigration actions go too far, and 59% suggested Gov. Newsom shouldn't cooperate with federal authorities.

Again, young women under 30 proved for Democrats a reliable cohort — 83% of women ages 18-29 supported the measure.

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