Horowitz: New study finds very weak asymptomatic coronavirus transmission

For the first time in history, governments across the globe have quarantined the healthy with the sick for fear that asymptomatic carriers are spreading the virus and killing people in droves. But after months of crushed liberty and destroyed livelihoods, is there any proof that asymptomatic carriers are indeed super-spreaders? Shouldn't we first investigate this theory before we force universal shutdowns and universal muzzle-wearing?

A recently published contact tracing study of 3,410 close contacts of 391 SARS-CoV-2 cases in a Chinese province near Wuhan during the peak months of the virus found that transmissibility seems to increase commensurately with the severity of symptoms presented by the infected individual. Of the 127 secondary infections that were traced to the original 3,410 cases, just eight were from individuals confirmed as asymptomatic.

All asymptomatic individuals were followed up with 14 days later by study administrators to confirm that they had not presented symptoms. The study was published on August 13 in the Annals of Internal Medicine journal.

The study's authors conclude not only that asymptomatic transmitters compose only a tiny slice of the spread, but that the rate of transmission increases with the severity of the illness, further validating the strategy of focusing on the sick, not the healthy:

The secondary attack rate increased with the severity of index cases, from 0.3% (CI, 0.0 to 1.0%) for asymptomatic to 3.3% (CI, 1.8% to 4.8%) for mild, 5.6% (CI, 4.4% to 6.8%) for moderate, and 6.2% (CI, 3.2% to 9.1%) for severe or critical cases (P for trend < 0.001). Manifestation of certain symptoms, such as fever (6.7% [CI, 5.3 to 8.0] vs. 3.3% [CI, 1.6 to 4.9]) and expectoration (13.6% [CI, 10.6 to 16.7] vs. 3.0% [CI, 2.1 to 3.9]), in the index cases was associated with an increased risk for infection in their close contacts.

Researchers also found, as other studies have already concluded, that most of the secondary infections occurred among household members. Thus, putting together the low rate of asymptomatic transmission with the fact that most cases (of all severity levels) are spread in the home, why should we destroy our civilization over the concern of asymptomatic spread? Where is the evidence that a non-symptomatic individual merely passing someone for a few seconds in a store will transmit the virus?

One might dismiss this study because it was conducted by Chinese researchers, but if there is a political bias in Chinese research, wouldn't it be skewed to the side that says asymptomatic people spread the virus?

Let's not forget that the World Health Organization said in May that asymptomatic spread was "very rare." Then, like any time a major scientific figure reveals the truth, the WHO suddenly recanted that position when the media raised a howl. But the "experts" never explained where the evidence exists to show major community spread through asymptomatic individuals.

A U.S.-based study from the University of Florida, Gainesville Department of Biostatistics, observed similar low rates of transmission among the asymptomatic. They found symptomatic individuals transmitted the virus at rate 28 times higher than asymptomatic individuals. Another Chinese study from May found very weak transmission capability among asymptomatic infections.

From lockdowns and school closures to mask-wearing and quarantining people without symptoms, our government continues to violate the Constitution and destroy our civilization without providing evidence for the premises they assert as scientific law.

It would be one thing if just 10% of people are asymptomatic and the other 90% of those infected get fatal cases. But given that some estimates show more than two-thirds of those infected are asymptomatic, and we know most of the remaining individuals are not at risk of dying unless they have certain conditions, the asymptomatic quirkiness of this virus is actually something to celebrate, not a pretext for fear and panic.

Add to that the fact that nearly all these studies conclude that most transmission of any kind occurs at home (not passing someone for three seconds in Walmart) and the current restrictions, indiscriminate quarantine, and mask-wearing are completely indefensible.