Polymarket bettors RAGE as the app says Maduro's capture doesn't count as an invasion

A gambling website is taking a stance on whether or not the capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro constitutes an American invasion of the country.

Maduro was arrested by U.S. forces at his home in Caracas, Venezuela. The socialist leader has since claimed that he is innocent.

'Then what the f*** would be an invasion?'

The contention comes from Polymarket, a website bent on letting the user gamble on nearly anything, after posting the bet, "Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by ..." with certain date ranges listed.

As reported by multiple outlets, Polymarket has decided it is not willing to provide payouts to those who said (with their wallets) that the capture of Maduro was indeed an invasion.

This caused outrage on website, with commentators leaving remarks such as "Everyone is calling it invasion."

"Then what the f*** would be an invasion?" another user said, according to MarketWatch.

One commentator cited the death toll from the event, which was allegedly 80, and said, "So it’s not an invasion because they did it quickly and not many people died?"

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Michael Nagle/Bloomberg via Getty Images

With the existing deadlines for the bet currently set at the U.S. invading Venezuela by January 31, March 31, or December 31, Polymarket has added "additional context" to its rules section for the page, defining what would constitute an invasion in the company's eyes.

"This market refers to U.S. military operations intended to establish control," it reads. "President Trump's statement that they will 'run' Venezuela while referencing ongoing talks with the Venezuelan government does not alone qualify the snatch-and-extract mission to capture Maduro as an invasion."

It further added, "This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela between November 3, 2025, and January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'."

Rumors have swirled around an account created on December 26, reported to be anonymous by the Financial Times, which allegedly bet more than $32,000 that Maduro would be removed by the end of January. This would have garnered the trader a $400,000 profit.

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Michael Nagle/Bloomberg via Getty Images

There are still other outstanding bets surrounding Maduro, including whether or not bodycam footage of his capture will be released by Jan 31, with around $60,000 already wagered.

Also, almost $200,000 has been bet on whether or not the capture was staged.

Rep. Ritchie Torres (D-N.Y.) recently proposed legislation to prohibit insiders "from engaging in covered transactions involving prediction market contracts," per the Financial Times.

For his own part, the first American pope, Leo XIV, recently called out gambling as a problem and a "scourge" that can tear families apart.

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