World

Iran: Israel’s options

Mar. 6, 2012 11:00am

- The Center for Vision & Values at Grove City College

Dr. Earl Tilford is a military historian and fellow for the Middle East & terrorism with The Center for Vision & Values at Grove City College.

Late in the summer of 1961, President John F. Kennedy asked the Air Force to plan a nuclear first strike on the Soviet Union. The plan involved 55 B-52 bombers hitting 80 targets to degrade Soviet Long Range Air Force and Strategic Rocket Forces by 80 to 90 percent. Since these bases were located in remote parts of the USSR, estimated casualties numbered less than one million. Having lost over 20 million people in their recently concluded Great Patriotic War, the thinking was Moscow might not respond, especially since its vastly degraded nuclear forces would render any response uncoordinated and ineffective while the United States retained a full counter-strike force able to obliterate the Soviet Union. President Kennedy thought the unthinkable 51 years ago.

Today, the Israeli Air Force (IAF) considers various strike options against Iran. Striking Iran confronts the IAF with the formidable operational challenge of hitting targets across 1,000 miles of hostile airspace. Israel has no long range-bombers. Its relatively small force of F-15 and F-16 fighter-bombers will have to refuel at least once during the 2,000-mile round trip.

Distance is only part of the problem. To reach Iran, the Israeli strike force must fly over hostile territory. One possible route involves traversing Syria, which has the capability to respond. Another route takes the IAF over Saudi Arabia; the Saudis might acquiesce, given their apprehension of a nuclear-armed Iran. The other possibility is to fly over Iraq, whose air defenses are incapable of impeding such an operation, but Baghdad may warn Tehran of what’s headed its way.

The Iranian air assets consist of American F-14 and Russian MiG-29s, generational equals of the Israeli F-15s and F-16s. Iran also has a few obsolete American F-4 Phantoms and F-5s. The Israeli planes are newer, have enhanced capabilities, and are flown by superior pilots. Iran possesses an array of surface-to-air missiles, including the SA-5 for high altitude threats, SA-15 to meet lower-level penetrators, and U.S. Super Hawk missiles. It also has a number of Russia’s newest air defense missiles, the S-300. Since Israel doesn’t have the resources to soften up this air defense system, it would have to deal with it during a strike. The IAF faces the prospect of possible high losses.

Moreover, the small number of Boeing KC-135 tankers in the Israeli inventory (the IAF’s Achilles’ heel) would need to be protected by fighter escorts, unless refueling took place over the Mediterranean prior to entering Syrian or Saudi air space going in and again coming out. In that case, Israel’s fighters will have little margin for air combat along the way or over Iran. Otherwise, refueling must occur in potentially hostile air space.

For Israel, Iranian targets spread from outside Tehran in the north to Busheher in the south, meaning a multiple axis attack may be necessary. Additionally, some targets are underground. Each F-15 can carry one American-produced GBU-28 “Bunker Buster” bomb. It is far from certain that these bombs can do the job on deeply buried targets. Multiple strikes would be necessary to dig away rock, soil, and concrete.

Whether successful or not, Israel faces international condemnation. So will the United States, even if it remains on the sidelines. That leaves two added alternatives.

First, the United States could join with Israel in a comprehensive conventional attack. Unlike Israel, the United States can degrade Iranian defenses, as it did Libyan air defenses last year. Furthermore, B-2s, dropping far larger bombs, can do so undetected. The Israelis can take the high-level tactical risks but with active U.S. support it is less likely Syria or Saudi Arabia will interfere. A broader attack to degrade Iranian military capabilities will lessen the possibility of retaliatory efforts like mining Hormuz or undertaking a worldwide terror campaign.

Second, for Israel, a conventional strike involves high risks for potentially little gain. A fiasco on the scale of the Dieppe Raid of World War II is a distinct possibility. Therefore, in the mind of some planners, using nuclear weapons would make sense. Low-yield, tactical nukes would solve problems of penetration. The bonus effect includes making those sites unusable for years. Underground detonations also minimize radioactive fallout.

Most nations and peoples cower at the thought of a nuclear first strike. Israel’s history of facing annihilation from its neighbors gives Israelis a different perspective. The “Never Again” factor is an Israeli cultural imperative. The unthinkable remains an immutable part of Jewish history.

Such an attack, if expanded to take out Iranian military response capabilities, would make clear that Israel won’t tolerate retaliation from Tehran’s surrogates in Lebanon, Syria, and their Hamas allies in Gaza. Israel would have demonstrated its willingness to respond at places and by means of its own choosing.

If the United States sits this one out, Israel may be forced to act with enormous ramifications and consequences. Such is the fallout from Washington’s strategic policy of leading from behind.

Comments (4)

  • Mivoyses
    Mar. 8, 2012 at 8:15am

    Please tell me why the Mullahs in Iran would use a nuclear attack against Israel? Think, why would they risk either destroying, or irradiating one of Islams most holy sites? Not to mention that with the same act they would inflame the entire Christian world because of what would happen to one of their holy sites.
    No, Iran acquiring Nuclear weapons isn’t about destroying Israel. It’s about threatening the middle east, southern Europe, and the north eastern parts of Africa (Arabia) into altering their domestic and international policies.
    If the argument was along these lines, rather than “saving the poor oppressed Israelis” there might actually be a world consensus on the matter.

    Report this comment

    Mivoyses  
    • Reload
      Mar. 8, 2012 at 5:19pm

      Why would Iran attack Israel? Really? Are you really that stupid? You seem to forget that the people that control Iran islamic fanatics. Do you have any concept of how much the Nation of Israel is despised by muslims? Especially the nut jobs that are in power in Iran. You see, said nut jobs what nothing more than to set in motion the return of the 12th imam to finally end the struggle between good and evil. They feel that they can hasten the 12th imams return by destroying Israel and starting a world war. They don’t fear retaliation because mutual annihilation and martyrdom is what they seek. They don’t think like you and me. Self preservation doesn’t even factor into their equation.

      Once you open your eyes, what the radicals want do with a nuke becomes as plain as the nose on you’re face. Don’t make the mistake of approaching the question of why the Iranians want a nuke in sane, logical terms. You have to try to approach the situation from the radicals point of view. Once you do, what they want the nuke for won’t be your question. It will be, how do we stop them from getting one.

      Report this comment

      Reload  
  • toomuchgovt
    Mar. 7, 2012 at 9:07am

    God Bless America and Israel it feels as if we are in this one alone. But I agree Never again. I, as a christian could not stand by and watch another atrocity. I can’t watch Syria, I break down and cry.

    Report this comment

    toomuchgovt  
  • MrObvious
    Mar. 7, 2012 at 12:02am

    The McCain variant of that Beach Boys song comes to mind: “Bomb, Bomb Bomb Iran”

    Report this comment

    MrObvious  

Sign In To Post Comments! Sign In

Sign Up For Our Newsletter!

TheBlaze

Channel Finder

Find TheBlaze on your TV

This zipcode is invalid, please try again

Channel Finder

TheBlaze is available on channel .

Spread the word!

If you can't find TheBlaze, please call to upgrade your package

Channel Finder

Unfortunately, TheBlaze is not available on .

But you can help! Call at or press CONTINUE to email your provider and urge them to add TheBlaze to your channel lineup.

But you can help! Press CONTINUE to email your provider and urge them to add TheBlaze to your channel lineup.

Continue

Request TheBlaze

Please complete the form

I would like to receive news and information from TheBlaze.
Skip

Thank you for supporting TheBlaze

Interested in doing more? Spread the word about TheBlaze to your friends and family.

Spread the word!

TheBlaze Magazine
Restoring Love