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Poll dancing -- 09.11.12


Enthusiasm for the November election pretty high [CNN, 09/10]: Seventy-nine percent of registered voters say they're at least "somewhat enthusiastic" about voting in November. More specifically, 27 percent said they're "very enthusiastic" and 30 percent said "extremely enthusiastic" (we've asked them to switch to decaf).

Obama leads Romney by four on taxes, by nine on health care [CNN, 09/10]: On the issue of taxes, registered voters prefer Obama 50 percent to Romney's 46 percent. On the issue of health care, Obama leads 54 percent to Romney's 45 percent.

People really do think ObamaCares [ABC News/Washington Post, 09/11]: When asked "Who would you prefer to have take care of you if you were sick (Obama) or (Romney)?  Forty-nine percent of registered voters said Obama. Thirty-six percent said Romney.

Romney, Obama tied among likely voters in tossup states [ABC News/Washington Post, 09/11]: "For the first time [Obama's] numerically ahead of Romney in trust to handle the economy, the key issue of the 2012 contest, albeit by a scant 47-45 percent ... Additionally, there’s been a shift in preferences in the eight tossup states ... [T]hough, among likely voters – people who say they’re both registered and certain to vote – the race squeezes shut at 49-48 percent, Obama-Romney, essentially unchanged since before the conventions (+2 Romney then, +1 Obama now, well within sampling error.) That means that Romney’s supporters express greater intention to vote..."

Most Americans say Medicare in need of reform [United Technologies/National Journal, 09/10]: "68 percent of respondents strongly or somewhat agreed with the proposition that 'the Medicare program is running out of money and will have to change if it is to survive.' Respondents were slightly more optimistic when asked if 'Medicare will pay enough benefits when I get older to cover all or most of my health care needs.' Fifty percent agreed with that statement, while 46 percent did not, and 4 percent refused to answer."

Elizabeth Warren and Scott Brown tied in Mass. [Kimball Political Consulting, 09/10]: "Senator Scott Brown (R) has less than a 1 point lead over Democrat Elizabeth Warren (46 percent to 45 percent) with 9 percent undecided."

The horse race [RCP average, 09/11]: An average of national polls shows Obama at 49 percent to Romney's 45 percent.

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