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Poll dancing -- 09.19.12


Less (but still most) Americans say the country is on the wrong track [NBC/WSJ, 9/18]: "39 percent of registered voters say the country is on the right track, versus 55 percent who say it’s on the wrong track. That right-track number is a 7-point increase from August, and it’s the highest percentage on this question since Sept. 2009."

U.S. Senate race in Wisconsin a tossup [Quinnipiac/NYT/CBS, 9/19]: A survey of likely voters shows "Representative Tammy Baldwin, a Democrat, and former Gov. Tommy G. Thompson, a Republican, each received support from 47 percent of voters, with 6 percent undecided."

So is the Senate race in Connecticut [UConn/Hartford Courant, 9/19]: "The poll showed Murphy ahead, 37 percent to 33 percent, but with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points, the race is basically a tie..."

Liz Warren leading Sen. Scott Brown by five [WBUR, 9/19]: Among likely voters in Massachusetts, Warren leads Brown 45 to 40 percent. Also, 35 percent say Warren "understands the needs of middle-class families." Twenty-seven percent say the same of Brown.

The amount of persuadable voters is small [Washington Post, 9/18]: Among registered voters who have declared their support for President Obama or Mitt Romney, only five percent say there's a "good chance" they'll change their mind before the election. Furthermore, Obama supporters are two percent less of Obama supporters say they could change their mind.

...Unless we're talking about persuadable voters in swing states [Gallup, 9/19]: "Twenty-two percent of swing-state voters are either undecided (5%) or say there is at least a slight chance (17%) they may change their vote preference between now and the election."

Low approval for teachers striking while negotiating [Rasmussen, 9/19]: "25% of Likely U.S. Voters think it is appropriate for the teachers to go on strike at this time. Sixty-six percent (66%) believe the teachers should stay on their jobs while a new union contract is being negotiated."

The horse race [RCP average, 9/19]: An average of national polls shows Obama leading Romney 48.1 to 45.4 percent.

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