Hillary Rodham Clinton has been considered the frontrunner for the democratic presidential nomination, but according to a new poll numbers she has fallen in some key states to competitor Bernie Sanders. On the Republican front, Donald Trump continues to lead and he’s opened up a huge lead in New Hampshire.
The new poll data comes from the YouGov/CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker.
Sen. Sanders (I-VT), leads with 43 percent in Iowa with Clinton 10 points behind at 33 percent. Vice President Joe Biden, who has not announced whether or not he will be running for the office yet, follows at 10 percent.
In New Hampshire, Sanders leads with 52 percent, while Clinton is over 20 points behind at 30 percent. In South Carolina though, Clinton continues well ahead of Sanders at 46 percent compared to 23 percent.
YouGov/CBS News provides this analysis:
While Democrats Iowa and New Hampshire are overwhelmingly white, South Carolina is the first early state with a significant minority population – over half of likely Democratic primary voters in the Palmetto State are African-American, a group with whom Clinton retains strong support. Indeed Sanders has a narrow lead over Clinton among white South Carolina Democrats (46%-39%), but trails Clinton by 48 points among blacks.
Another demographic with whom Clinton has received disproportionate support is with women, and that mostly remains the case here. Clinton’s support is 7 points higher among Iowa women than men. The gender gap is larger in New Hampshire (12 points) and insignificant in South Carolina (4 points). By contrast, Bernie Sanders performs particularly well with Democratic men – though Clinton trails by only 11 points among women in New Hampshire she trails by a mammoth 38 points among men.
Now for the Republicans.
Though another poll late last month showed Carson tied with Trump among conservative Iowa voters, the New York City businessman leads with 29 percent compared to the retired neurosurgeon’s 25 percent, according to YouGov/CBS News poll’s data. Trump holds an even stronger lead in New Hampshire and South Carolina with 40 and 36 percent, respectively, compared to Carson’s 12 and 21 percent, respectively.
With 16 other GOP candidates still in the running — the 17th, former Texas Gov. Rick Perry, suspended his campaign Friday — here’s what the overall top five for republican candidates looks like in these states
- Trump (29 percent)
- Carson (25 percent)
- Cruz (10 percent)
- Rubio (6 percent)
- Fiorina (4 percent)
- Trump (40 percent)
- Carson (12 percent)
- Kasich (9 percent)
- Fiorina (8 percent)
- Bush (6 percent)
- Trump (36 percent)
- Carson (21 percent)
- Cruz (6 percent)
- Bush (5 percent)
- Graham (5 percent)
Here’s some analysis about the poll on the GOP candidates:
Notably, three of the top four candidates in New Hampshire have never held elected office (John Kasich, Ohio’s governor, is the exception) and in all three early states polled the majority of Republicans back one of two “non-politicians” – Trump or Carson – with every other candidate in single digits. Data elsewhere in the poll sheds some light on the phenomenon. Asked which one of four candidate qualities is most important to deciding their vote, Republican voters cited experience “getting things done” in the private sector more often than political acumen in all three states.
YouGov/CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker is based on an online survey of registered voters who previously voted in the primaries in these states, the poll’s website stated.