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Researchers revise coronavirus model used by White House to show lower death estimate, earlier peak

Social distancing is stopping the march of the virus

Photo: MANDEL NGAN/AFP via Getty Images

A model predicting the coronavirus contagion in the United States has been revised to show a lower number of deaths expected at an earlier peak date.

The numbers are compiled by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington School of Medicine and are used by the White House to help guide the national coronavirus response.

The new number of expected deaths is 81,766, with a higher range of 136,401 and a lower range of 49,431, according to U.S. News and World Report.

Previously the coronavirus task force said that the U.S. could expect between 100,000 and 200,000 deaths.

The IHME model has also moved up the estimated date of the peak for the contagion to April 16. On that day, 3,130 deaths are expected nationwide.

At the time of this writing, there have been 9,619 deaths in the United States due to the coronavirus.

The model similarly decreased the number of expected needed acute-care beds, intensive-care beds, and ventilators.

"As we obtain more data and more precise data, the forecasts we at IHME created have become more accurate," said Dr. Christopher Murray, who helped created the model, in a statement.

"And these projections are vital to health planners, policymakers, and anyone else associated with caring for those affected by and infected with the coronavirus," he added.

Here's more about the coronavirus model:

What experts are using to predict peak of coronavirus cases www.youtube.com

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