The fate of the Democratic Party has been sealed, according to longtime Democratic strategist Doug Sosnik — unless it can move the needle with voters on one key issue.
What is Sosnik saying?
Sosnik, who served as former President Bill Clinton's political director and who has advised countless Democratic politicians, wrote in a new memo obtained by Politico that Democrats are doomed this November.
Their only saving grace, Sosnik suggested, is abortion.
"The recent leak of a draft Supreme Court ruling overturning Roe v. Wade is the Democrats best, and probably last, hope of changing the outcome of the 2022 midterm elections," Sosnik wrote. "If the Court’s impending decision doesn’t alter the current political dynamics, we will look back at the events between July and early November of last year as the period of time that determined the outcome of this election cycle."
The events that sealed the fate of Democrats were, according to Sosnik:
- The Biden administration creating the "false impression that the COVID-19 battle had been won," then doubling down on restrictions
- The "disastrous withdrawal" from Afghanistan
- The economic downturn, which began in late summer 2021, accelerated last fall, and exploded this spring
- The fight over the infrastructure bill and Biden's Build Back Better agenda last fall, which "reinforced the impression that Biden and Democrats were big spenders who were incapable of governing"
- Republican electoral success in Virginia and New Jersey's off-year elections last November
So, what about abortion?
Because presidential approval rating "is the best proxy to determine current levels of support for the party in power," Sosnik said the proverbial fat lady is already singing unless Democrats successfully reframe the abortion issue.
"If they are not successful in reframing the terms of debate for the midterm elections around the pending decision by the Supreme Court on Roe, we will look back at Biden and the Democrats’ failures last summer and early fall as the reasons for their electoral defeats this November," Sosnik predicted.
Democrats are already working overtime to reframe the issue, making abortion about "bodily autonomy." Only Democrats (yes, the same people who supported vaccine mandates) believe in bodily autonomy, so the narrative claims, whereas Republicans want to control you.
Still, polls show that a majority of Americans overwhelmingly support abortion restrictions, which suggests the forthcoming Supreme Court decision on abortion will not influence the electorate enough to help Democrats overcome their growing unpopularity.