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WSJ poll: Economic issues drive more Hispanic men toward GOP; big shift for possible Trump v. Biden rematch

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Hispanic voters, one of the most highly sought-after voting blocs for both Republicans and Democrats, are now evenly divided in their support for the two major U.S. political parties, a new poll finds.

A survey conducted by the Wall Street Journal shows that just one year after Democratic House candidates won 60% of the Hispanic vote, equal numbers of Latino voters now say they would support Republicans and Democrats at 37%. Another 22% responded that they were undecided between the two parties.

Hispanic voters were also nearly evenly divided on a hypothetical 2020 rematch in the upcoming 2024 presidential election. President Joe Biden would be supported by 44% of those surveyed, while former President Donald Trump would be supported by 43% of respondents. If the trends in this poll are accurate, this would be a monumental rightward shift for Hispanic voters, 63% of whom voted for Biden in 2020 in a 30-point landslide over Trump for this demographic.

"Latinos are more and more becoming swing voters ... They’re a swing vote that we’re going to have to fight for," Democratic pollster John Anzalone, whose company helped the Wall Street Journal conduct the poll, said.

Anzalone was the lead pollster for Biden's 2020 presidential campaign. The Wall Street Journal hired his firm along with that of Republican pollster Tony Fabrizio, the former lead pollster for the Trump campaign, in a new effort "that will explore the forces driving American politics and changes in society."

Together, the pollsters found that economic issues are the driving force behind Hispanic support for Republicans, particularly among Hispanic men.

Hispanic men said that Republicans have better economic policy by a margin of 17 points. Women, on the other hand, favor Democratic economic policies by a 10 point margin.

A majority of Hispanic men said they would like to see a return to Trump's economic policies, while Hispanic women prefer Biden's policies.

"You see in this poll that there’s a group of Hispanic men who were without a doubt enticed by Trump and have become more Republican,’’ Anzalone said.

"This says to me that the economy matters, particularly to Hispanic men. The economy and economic factors are driving them,” Fabrizio said.

The Wall Street Journal surveyed 1,500 registered voters, including 165 Hispanic voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 7.6 percentage points. The poll was conducted from Nov. 16 to Nov. 22. Half of the respondents were interviewed via cellphone. One quarter were contacted by text message and completed an internet survey. Another quarter of respondents were interviewed by landline phone.

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