Poll shows surprising break in Pennsylvania race after Trump pushes GOP candidate

Poll shows surprising break in Pennsylvania race after Trump pushes GOP candidate
A new poll shows a slight edge for Democrat Connor Lamb in Tuesday's special election for Pennsylvania's seat in the House of Representatives. President Donald Trump had campaigned for the Republican, Rick Saccone, on Saturday. (Jeff Swensen/Getty Images)

A new poll shows a surprising trend in the special election in Pennsylvania after President Donald Trump promoted the Republican candidate in a rally Saturday.

Here’s what the poll said:

The poll from Monmouth University shows that the special election for Pennsylvania’s 18th Congressional District is breaking in the Democrat’s favor.

The poll has three different outcomes depending on what the turnout will be in Tuesday’s election, but has the Democrat Conor Lamb leading in all three.

If Democrats turn out in the special election in similar ratios as with other special elections in the last year, Lamb leads 51 percent to 44 percent over Republican Rick Saccone.

If there is a low turnout in the election, similar to historical midterm models, Lamb wins with a lower margin of 49 percent to 47 percent.

If there is a very turnout in the election, similar to that of presidential election years, the Democrat also wins with 51 percent to 44 percent.

A Democrat surge?

The results of the poll show a Democrat surge from a month ago when the Republican was winning in each election poll model.

This marks a turnaround from last month’s Monmouth poll of the race, when Saccone held a small lead in all the models – 49% to 46% in the surge model, 48% to 44% in the high turnout model, and 50% to 45% in the low turnout model.

If Democrats win, however, their victory will be short-lived. The district will cease to exist because of a ruling that will redistrict electoral lines in the state.

Fox News host John Roberts described the election as being for merely “bragging rights” because the outcome would be so short-lasting. Brit Hume said that there was “tremendous antipathy to Donald Trump” from Democrats to explain the surge in the vote.

Here’s Hume’s comments on Fox News: