Report: Santorum Memo Reveals Victory Plan That Includes Fight at the Convention

A new memo reportedly from campaign strategists for Republican presidential candidate Rick Santorum hit the web Monday morning, revealing that their counter to rival candidate Mitt Romney's delegate math argument involves a fight up to, and possibly at the convention:

"Majority Needed for Romney, Not for Santorum

Mitt Romney must have a majority on the first ballot in order to win the nomination because he will perform worse on subsequent ballots as grassroots conservative delegates decide to back the more conservative candidate. Subsequently, Santorum only needs to be relatively close on the initial ballot in order to win on a later ballot as Romney’s support erodes."

Several media outlets have pitched that block quote as Santorum concedes he cannot win, negating the four previous pages of the memo arguing that their candidate is better positioned than Romney to win the remaining primaries and conventions at the county, district and state level, prior to the national convention in Tampa at the end of August. The memo concludes the Santorum campaign's point that Romney's delegate math argument is flawed:

“Time is on Rick Santorum's side. He will gain delegates as this process plays out and conservatives are elected as National Convention Delegates. Despite the Romney campaign’s smokescreen, they cannot change the fact that he can’t inspire the base of the party, has a delegate problem, and has a very difficult time getting to a majority.

The delegate race is currently much closer than some would like people to believe. It will get even closer as actual national convention delegates are elected at county, district, and state conventions across the country. They represent the Conservative Majority of the Republican Party, and that is a huge problem for a moderate candidate like Mitt Romney.

Furthermore, Rick Santorum will gain the momentum in late May by winning Kentucky, Arkansas, and Texas and head into California and New Jersey with significant momentum. At that point there will be a Conservative Majority of the delegates to the National Convention and Rick Santorum will become the presumed Republican nominee for President of the United States.”

POLITICO's Maggie Haberman writes that Santorum's criticism of Romney's long-term security on the delegate lead may be accurate, but the Santorum organization may not have the capabilities to execute over the long haul:

"Santorum's team has a legitimate point that each contest that goes by without Romney starting to win over the base - despite his prediction of victory in Alabama tomorrow, it still seems like a tall order for the former Massachusetts governor - gives his rivals a fresh rationale for hanging in there.

However, Santorum has little by way of organization beyond a small cadre of advisers and staffers, a fact that Alex chronicled today. That could end up mattering a great deal at the local conventions, where Ron Paul may be a factor given his activist support. That proved true in Clark County, Las Vegas, over the weekend, and it makes Paul a real X-factor in the play for delegates at the local level."

We also saw the Ron Paul supporter faction notably impact a Denver County GOP assembly this weekend, furthering the case that his support is strongest among activists on a local level. Santorum pushed his argument against Romney's fuzzy math on NBC's "Today Show" Monday.

"They are not going to nominate a moderate Massachusetts governor who's been outspending his opponent 10-1 and can't win the election outright," Santorum said of the Republican Party's conservative base. "What chance do we have in a general election if he can't, with an overwhelming money advantage, be able to deliver any kind of knockout blow to other candidates?"

"We're going to be the nominee," Santorum said, adding later, "Gov. Romney will not make it."

It will take 1,144 delegates to win the GOP nomination when the party holds in convention in Tampa in late August. According to a count by The Associated Press, Romney has 454 delegates and Santorum has 217, compared with 107 for former House Speaker Newt Gingrich and 47 for Texas Rep. Ron Paul.