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New poll shows dire outlook for Democrats, best midterm projection for Republicans in 40 years
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New poll shows dire outlook for Democrats, best midterm projection for Republicans in 40 years

Projections for the 2022 midterm elections look abysmal for President Joe Biden, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, and the entire Democratic Party.

In fact, according to a new ABC News/Washington Post survey, Republican congressional candidates hold their largest lead over voter preference heading into a midterm election year since 1981 when Ronald Reagan was president.

What are the details?

The poll discovered that among registered voters in the U.S., the current preference is Republicans over Democrats by a whopping 10 points, 51% to 41%.

ABC News explained the significance of the finding:

That's the biggest lead for Republicans in the 110 ABC/Post polls that have asked this question since November 1981. Indeed, it's only the second time the GOP has held a statistically significant advantage (the other was +7 points in January 2002) and the ninth time it's held any numerical edge at all.

While the discovery comes about one year before Election Day 2022, the current state of the Democratic Party, and voter sentiment toward Democrats, suggests Democrats have an uphill battle if they should maintain their majorities in the House and Senate.

ABC News further explained why Republicans could maintain their lead over Democrats in voter preference with such a long time before the election, citing "soaring economic discontent," Biden's cratering approval, and the "broad sense that the [Democratic Party] is out of touch with the concerns of most Americans — 62% say so."

Shockingly, the poll found that 70% of registered voters believe the economy is heading in the wrong direction. That statistic has significant electoral consequences.

"Now, 55% disapprove of Biden's economic performance — 6 points more than former President Donald Trump's highest disapproval rating on the economy in September 2017. Just over a year later, Trump's Republicans lost 40 House seats in the 2018 midterms," ABC News explained.

The survey also found that just 35% of independent voters approve of Biden, a worrying statistic for the White House. Independent voters are critical to winning elections, and if Biden continue to hemorrhage support among that demographic, he will almost certainly lose re-election and hurt his party.

What about Congress, specifically?

Even better for Republicans, the survey found that voters who are looking for a new politician to support in the midterm elections currently favor Republicans over Democrats by a whopping 20 points.

Compounding problems for Democrats, voters in states expected to have the most competitive Senate races — Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — share a greater disapproval of Biden's job performance than in states not expected to have competitive Senate elections, 33% to 43%.

The poll further found that voters in those states currently favor supporting Republicans over Democrats by a massive 23 point margin, 58% to 35%.

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