Who’s running in 2028? Stu Burguiere breaks down the prediction markets — and the shocking favorite

Not that long ago, the 2028 debate was JD Vance vs. Marco Rubio. Now, prediction markets say Ron DeSantis and Ted Cruz are more likely to jump into the race than either of them.

On a recent episode of “Predictable,” BlazeTV host Stu Burguiere dove into Kalshi markets to share which Republicans are predicted to run — and the shocking overall favorite to win in 2028.

Stu begins with the Republicans most likely to enter the race.

As of the episode’s taping, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis tops the list with a 90% chance of running. Stu mentions a Washington Post report that the Florida governor is preparing another White House bid — a claim DeSantis has flatly denied. “I don’t know what the truth is there,” Stu says.

Texas Sen. Ted Cruz follows DeSantis at 86%. Immediately after him is former Trump aide John McEntee.

Stu is surprised by this one. “Who is John McEntee? Do we know?” he asks.

Fourth on the list is Vice President JD Vance, sitting at 73%.

“I still think that's pretty low, frankly; I think he's going to run,” Stu predicts.

Following Vance are Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul (66%), Secretary of State Marco Rubio (60%), and Kentucky Rep. Thomas Massie (59%).

“Rand Paul would be interesting. … I think he's always wanted to run again. I think he feels like the right environment might be able to bring him in,” Stu says, adding that Paul would have “real credibility” on the Make America Healthy Again movement and antiwar issues.

From Massie, it descends to former Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp (57%), former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (52%), former Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin (45%), Arkansas Sen. Tom Cotton (36%), South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott (32%), Arkansas Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders (31%), Interior Secretary Doug Burgum (30%), former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley (29%), and HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (29%).

Tucker Carlson made the list as well at 24%, but Stu doesn’t expect him to jump in.

“I don’t think he’s going to do it,” he says, noting that Carlson is already successful between his “podcasts” and his “private-sector gig.”

Stu is also quick to dismiss Erika Kirk (5.4%) and Elon Musk (3.1%). Kirk, he argues, is “not going to run for president” because “the last thing she needs is more people talking about her,” and Musk is “not constitutionally eligible to be president.”

But more telling is who is actually positioned to win the nomination. As of the taping, JD Vance leads at 34%, followed by Marco Rubio at 18% and Ron DeSantis at 17%.

And when it comes to who’s the favorite to win in 2028, it’s not a Republican at all. After last week’s midterm rout, Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-Ga.) leads at 20%.

Following Ossoff are Vance (13%), New York Democrat Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (9.6%), Rubio (9.4%), California Democrat Gov. Gavin Newsom (8.4%), and Ron DeSantis (6.2%).

After that, it’s “mostly Democrats,” Stu says.

“Very split. You should expect that 15- to 20-person field going forward,” he adds.

To hear more of Stu’s analysis, watch the episode above.

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