Libertarian think tank pearl-clutches about reduced Islamic migration — but it's music to MAGA ears

America's most prominent libertarian think tank released a report on Monday concern-mongering over the drastic drop in legal immigration from third-world Muslim nations under President Donald Trump.

The Cato Institute — admittedly a big supporter of immigration and longtime opponent of the president's border wall — is fretting over an apparent 96% drop in immigrant visa issuances and refugee admissions from majority-Muslim countries such as Afghanistan, Algeria, Iran, Libya, Pakistan, and Somalia.

'We’ve come so far on these issues.'

Meanwhile, prominent voices in the MAGA movement are celebrating the news from Cato.

The White House's rapid response account even shared a Cato Institute graph showing the decline in migration from Muslim countries.

In response to the graph, Turning Point USA spokesman Andrew Kolvet wrote, "I couldn't love this stat and this graphic any more. This is actually exactly what I voted for."

Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin said, "Coming to America means committing to America: our Constitution, our laws, our freedoms. Tougher vetting under POTUS Trump has cut admissions from high-risk countries by 96%. We owe Americans nothing less than knowing exactly who we let in."

Texas Rep. Brandon Gill (R) noted, "Absolutely incredible victory for the American people, thanks to POTUS."

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Aaron Schwartz/AFP/Getty Images

The libertarian think tank underscored that Trump and his administration are directly responsible for the drop in admissions of refugees and migrants from nations, highlighting:

• Trump's Jan. 20, 2025, proclamation that the U.S. "admit only those refugees who can fully and appropriately assimilate into the United States," "ensure that the United States preserves taxpayer resources for its citizens," and suspend the entry of refugees into the U.S. under the U.S. Refugee Admissions Program;
• Trump's Sept. 30, 2025, determination allocating refugee admissions for fiscal year 2026 primarily to Afrikaners from South Africa;
• Trump's Dec. 16, 2025, proclamation restricting the entry of foreign nationals into the U.S. from scores of third-world countries including Afghanistan, Mali, South Sudan, and Yemen;
• the State Department's pause on immigrant visa processing from 75 countries "whose migrants take welfare from the American people at unacceptable rates";
• U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services' Jan. 1, 2026, memo applying Trump's 40-country entry ban; and
• the State Department's recent immigrant visa interview freeze.

Many of the administration's actions have been challenged and in some cases blocked in the courts. The State Department's pause on visa processing from 75 countries, for instance, is no longer in effect as of Aug. 21, owing to a court order.

Nevertheless, these actions have proven impactful.

The libertarian think tank's analysis of State Department data shows incredible drops in migration from various Muslim terrorist hot spots.

Whereas, for example, 5,563 immigrants and refugees from Afghanistan were admitted by the U.S. in former President Joe Biden's final month in office, there were only nine in February 2026 — a decline of 99.8%. Whereas 3,026 Pakistani refugees and migrants were admitted in December 2024, only 63 were admitted in February 2026. Similarly dramatic declines were observed among admissions from various other Muslim nations.

"If the current pace continues, the fiscal year 2026 (which started in October) would see the fewest immigrants and refugees from majority-Muslim countries in at least 30 years," said the Cato Institute report.

'Of course, there are immigrants who don’t work and commit crimes.'

The report noted further that if these levels continue for the rest of this fiscal year, "then only about 40,000 immigrants and refugees from these countries will have immigrated that year. This would be down nearly 80 percent from 2024 and even about 30 percent lower than 2020, when the first Trump administration used the pandemic as an excuse to cut off legal immigration."

The libertarian outfit also questioned the administration's justification for the 40-country entry ban on the basis of security, claiming that "only two of the ten majority Muslim countries on that list have ever carried out a deadly terrorist attack in the United States."

The Cato Institute further characterized immigrants from Muslim nations as hard workers who have a positive effect on government budgets and as "much more highly educated than the US-born."

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Afghan migrants attempting to cross US border near Sasabe, Arizona, in January 2025. John Moore/Getty Images

Minnesota is among the states that has had a different experience on the ground with some of these supposed scholarly and industrious imports.

The Center for Immigration Studies reported in December that approximately 54% of Somali-headed households in Minnesota received food stamps and 73% of Somali households had at least one member on Medicaid. By way of comparison, the figures for native households were 7% and 18%, respectively. The CIS also noted that 58.2% of working-age Somalis do not speak English very well and 39% have no high school diploma.

Trump shared a graph on Jan. 4 titled "Immigrant Welfare Recipient Rates by Country of Origin," which showed that the percentages of immigrant households on assistance from Afghanistan, Algeria, Iraq, Iran, Libya, Pakistan, South Sudan, and Yemen were all over 40% and went as high as 75%.

The Cato Institute's report claimed, "Of course, there are immigrants who don’t work and commit crimes. But they are the minority. The vast majority of immigrants — including those from majority-Muslim countries — want to contribute to the United States, and they have contributed to it."

The libertarian think tank implored Congress to "go further to protect Americans’ right to associate freely with people born in other countries, regardless of their countries of origin."

William Wolfe, the executive director of the Center for Baptist Leadership, tweeted, "To see an official White House account celebrating a decrease in 1) legal immigration and from 2) explicitly Muslim-Majority countries is truly amazing. We’ve come so far on these issues. Some of the young guys don’t know that, but it did not used to be like this."

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